AfD reaches 30 percent as Union falls to 18 percent in German Insa poll

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In brief

Polling results and party standings

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, reached 30% support in the latest Insa survey conducted for Bild, establishing a 12-point lead over the ruling CDU/CSU alliance. The survey polled 1,202 eligible voters between 28 September and 2 October 2026 using telephone and online questionnaires. The AfD climbed by one percentage point compared to the previous week, marking its highest level recorded by the Insa institute. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU fell by one point to 18%, matching the lowest figure recorded for the conservative alliance by Insa. Other polling series, including the Politbarometer, have also shown the AfD expanding its lead over rival parties.

Party vote shares in Insa survey%

Data from the article text

Middle tier and parliamentary thresholds

Behind the two largest factions, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) remained flat at 14% under co-leaders Bärbel Bas, the Labour Minister, and Lars Klingbeil, the Finance Minister. The Greens lost one percentage point to match the SPD at 14%, following recent calls from the Green parliamentary leadership for a revised strategy toward the AfD. The Left Party remained unchanged at 10%. Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) gained one point to reach 4%, drawing level with the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which remained static at 4%. Because both BSW and the FDP fall short of the 5% threshold, neither party would enter parliament. Other smaller parties accounted for 6% of responses. Insa reported a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for the survey sample.

Coalition arithmetic and majority scenarios

With 14% of the total vote going to parties below the 5% electoral hurdle, a parliamentary majority requires more than 43% of the total vote. The governing black-red coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD totals 32%, leaving the current government 11 percentage points short of a majority. A three-party left alliance comprising the Greens, SPD, and the Left Party reaches 38%, which also remains below the required threshold.

Hypothetical coalition totals in Insa poll%

Data from the article text

A Kenya coalition uniting CDU/CSU, the Greens, and the SPD reaches 46%, representing a viable mathematical path to a majority without right-wing participation. Together, the AfD and CDU/CSU total 48% of the projected vote. However, Merz and the CDU/CSU leadership continue to rule out any form of governing cooperation with the AfD.

Public approval and broader polling data

The poll recorded widespread dissatisfaction with the federal executive. Among respondents, 79% expressed dissatisfaction with Chancellor Merz, while 15% were satisfied. The federal government overall registered an identical 79% dissatisfaction rating against 14% satisfaction. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier intervened following disputes within the governing coalition, as public discussion over potential early federal elections continued.

The Insa findings follow comparable data points from other research organizations. In mid-September 2026, YouGov placed CDU/CSU at 18%, while the GMS institute recorded the AfD at 30%. In other recent surveys, AfD numbers ranged up to four percentage points lower, while Union figures reached up to five points higher. Insa previously measured the Union at 18.5% in October 2021 and at 30% in early March 2025.