In brief
The AfD gained one point to reach 28% in the latest Forsa poll, equalling its previous high from mid-May and opening a record seven-point gap ahead of CDU/CSU at 21%.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's satisfaction rating dropped to 14%, with 85% dissatisfied. Among CDU/CSU supporters, 48% are satisfied and 50% dissatisfied, while a special Stern/RTL poll found 43% of all respondents think the Union would gain support with a different chancellor.
56% of respondents (up three points from the previous week) trust no party to solve Germany's problems. The AfD leads on perceived competence at 14%, followed by CDU/CSU at 12%, with SPD at only 4%.
73% expect the economy to worsen (up two points), while only 11% foresee improvement. Forsa notes this is the most pessimistic economic outlook so far this year.
FDP remains at 4%, below the 5% Bundestag threshold for nearly two months. BSW has fallen under 3% and is no longer listed separately. 27% of the electorate say they would not vote or are undecided, well above the 17.9% non-voter share in the 2025 federal election.
- 15 JunJune: CDU/CSU dips to 21% twice
- 28 JulSurvey period begins; BSW already below 3% threshold
- 3 AugSurvey period ends; AfD at 28%, CDU/CSU at 21%
The Alternative für Deutschland has returned to its strongest-ever standing in Forsa's weekly RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, reaching 28% and establishing the largest lead over the Christian Democrats measured in the series.
The top-line numbers
The AfD gained one percentage point compared to the previous week, while CDU/CSU fell by one point to 21%, yielding a seven-point gap. The 28% figure was last recorded in mid-May. The Union's 21% is its lowest in the Trendbarometer since the February 2025 federal election, though it had already touched that level twice in June.
- AfD
- 28 %
- CDU/CSU
- 21 %
- Grüne
- 16 %
- Linke
- 12 %
- SPD
- 12 %
- FDP
- 4 %
- Sonstige
- 7 %
Data from the article text
The Greens held steady at 16%, in third place, continuing a slow upward trend from their 11.6% general-election result. Both the Left party and the SPD registered 12%, the Left having lost the one-point advantage it had last week. The SPD has now sat at least four points below its historically weak election result of 16.4% since March. The FDP remained at 4%, below the 5% threshold for nearly two straight months. The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) is no longer listed separately because its support has fallen under 3%, within the survey's 2.5-point margin of error. Smaller parties together account for 7%. The share of non-voters and undecided respondents stands at 27%, well above the 17.9% non-voter share at the 2025 election.
Merz at a new personal low
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's satisfaction score fell one point to just 14%, while dissatisfaction rose two points to 85%. Among CDU/CSU supporters, 48% are satisfied with his work and 50% are not. Only 19% of SPD backers express satisfaction.
A separate Forsa survey for Stern and RTL asked whether the Union would get more support with a different chancellor: 43% of all respondents said yes, 51% said no. Within the Union's own camp the picture was split, with 46% seeing a switch as advantageous and 48% disagreeing. Der Tagesspiegel noted that the chancellor's recent cabinet and party personnel reshuffle, and the intra-party criticism of his communication style over the moves, may have played a role in the latest slide.
Competence vacuum
When asked which party is best equipped to tackle the country's problems, 56% of respondents said they trust none of them, an increase of three points from the week before. The AfD leads on this question at 14% (down one point), followed by the CDU/CSU at 12% (also down one). The Greens and Left each poll at 6%, unchanged, while the SPD fell one point to 4%. Forsa's data shows no party generating broad confidence in its problem-solving ability.
Economic gloom
Expectations for the economy have turned darker still. Fully 73% of those polled believe conditions will worsen, two points more than the previous week. Only 11% anticipate an improvement. Forsa described the economic outlook as the most pessimistic it has recorded so far this year.
Forsa surveyed 2,501 people between 28 July and 3 August on behalf of RTL Deutschland. The statistical margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.