Escalating threats

President Donald Trump said on Friday 31 July that US forces would strike Iran "very hard," and American media reported that a new bombing campaign could begin as soon as Sunday 2 August. Possible targets include energy facilities of the Islamic Republic, though CBS News noted that a final order had not yet been given. The threat follows a period of heightened exchanges, including an Iranian attack on a US-owned floating platform in Egypt three days earlier.

“We will hit Iran very hard.”

Travel advisory

On Saturday 1 August the State Department issued an emergency travel advisory covering nearly the entire Middle East. Embassies in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Lebanon posted identical warnings. "Due to increased tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex, with the potential for unpredictable escalation," the notices said. Americans in the region were told to "consider departure or be prepared to depart in the event of escalation." Those outside the region were urged to "seriously reconsider travel to and through the Middle East."

“The Iranian regime is unpredictable, as seen by its recent decisions to attack areas in the region without warning or provocation, as well as to expand attacks to areas not previously targeted (such as Egypt).”

Country-specific guidance accompanied the general alert. In Jordan, Americans were advised to avoid military installations; in Israel, to know the location of the nearest shelter. The US embassy in Beirut said the mission remained under "ordered departure" status, meaning non-emergency government personnel were being moved out of Lebanon. Embassies cautioned that flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures and travel disruptions were likely.

Iran's retaliation plan

On Saturday the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim, citing a senior security official, reported that Iran had drawn up an "extensive" plan to counter potential attacks on its infrastructure. The plan reportedly includes targeting vital Israeli infrastructure and US energy infrastructure in the Middle East. The report framed the preparations as a response to recent US media claims about possible American and Israeli strikes.

Diplomatic manoeuvres

Four sources familiar with the contacts told CNN that Trump held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The crown prince expressed concern about the prospect of new US attacks and reiterated Riyadh's desire for de-escalation. Qatar, Pakistan and other countries acting as mediators were also intensifying diplomatic contacts with Washington and Tehran, with the resumption of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz among the topics under discussion.

Egypt's inclusion in the travel advisory was a first, and reports linked it to the Iranian attack on the American-owned platform three days earlier. The advisory underscored the widening geography of the confrontation, as both sides signalled readiness for further action.