Bardella in Ceuta

Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement national, presented his immigration proposals in Ceuta on Monday, 12 October, alongside Vox leader Santiago Abascal. The visit fell on Spain's national day and opened a two-day trip to Spain. Ceuta was the scene of a mass entry in late July, when more than 70,000 people crossed illegally from neighbouring Morocco on 30 and 31 July. Most of them returned to Morocco, but the influx triggered a political crisis in Madrid and sharp tensions within the European Union. Speaking to the press in the enclave, Bardella described the situation there.

“It is the future of Europe if we do not urgently take back control of our national and European borders.”

Accusations against Madrid

Bardella blamed the regularisation of undocumented migrants decided by Madrid, which he said had 'kicked off a rush towards Europe' and created an 'appel d'air' with 'very serious consequences'. He criticised French support for the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, 'in his migratory fanaticism'. He praised Giorgia Meloni for 'temporarily suspending free movement within the Schengen area with Spain', calling it a courageous and responsible decision. Bardella said that from spring 2027, if the French grant the RN their trust, France would seek to reserve free movement in Schengen exclusively for European nationals. Asked about youthful antisemitic remarks that Mediapart attributes to him, he again denied them and said the affair had 'fizzled out'.

Mutual endorsements

Abascal gave Bardella his backing to become the 'future Prime Minister of France' if Marine Le Pen wins the presidency in May. In return, Bardella urged Spaniards to vote for Vox in the snap parliamentary elections on 29 November. Bardella said that with renewed governments and patriots in power, the two countries could count on each other to secure Europe's borders. The National Rally hopes a strong Vox result will create momentum across Europe. Le Pen is eyeing victory in next year's French presidential race, and Bardella has been working to firm up his party's European alliances.

Spain's electoral arithmetic

Spain heads to snap elections on 29 November, and Vox hopes to make significant gains. A parliamentary majority requires 176 seats. An El Pais survey puts the conservative People's Party (PP) and Vox together at 198 seats, with Vox's support predicted to double from the 2023 election. If the PP formed a coalition with Vox, it would be the first time the hard right returned to power in Spain since Francisco Franco died in 1975. Sanchez's Socialists are predicted to win 112 seats, down from 121 three years ago. Vox national spokesman Jose Antonio Fuster said:

“There is hope for Spain with these elections. We will fight for victory and to convince Spaniards we are worth voting for.”

In 2023 the PP won the most votes without a majority, and Sanchez's Socialists formed a government with the help of Together for Catalonia. Since then the PP has formed four regional governments with Vox, and the two parties share power in about 100 councils.

Majority threshold176

PP and Vox combined (El Pais survey)198

PSOE predicted (November)112

PSOE 2023 result121

Majority threshold

176 seats

PP and Vox combined (El Pais survey)

198 seats

PSOE predicted (November)

112 seats

PSOE 2023 result

121 seats

Data from the article text

Abascal's verdict on Sanchez

Abascal once told the Spanish parliament that Sanchez's government was the 'worst for the past 80 years'. Vox distances itself from the Franco dictatorship, according to Steven Forti, an expert in the far right who lectures at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. Polls put Vox closer to power than at any point in its short history, with the November vote now the decisive test for the PP and Vox coalition option.