What happened on the border

On the night of 5 to 6 October, 20 migrants tried to cross illegally from Belarus into Latvia. The Latvian military and the Ministry of the Interior describe it as an especially aggressive attempt, with the migrants accompanied by an armed and masked escort.

Interior Minister Janis Dombrava said that men on the Belarusian side tried to push the migrants onto Latvian territory while threatening Latvian soldiers. In a post on X, he wrote that the people accompanying the migrants were armed, threatened soldiers, and actively encouraged the migrants to enter Latvia and directed them there. He said the provocation was more demonstrative and aggressive than many of the earlier incidents. He also warned Minsk that incidents of this kind could bring more serious consequences for Belarus itself.

After the attempt, a group of masked people crossed the border illegally and took surveillance cameras belonging to Latvian services. They returned to Belarus before Latvian officers arrived at the scene.

Black Rus claims responsibility

On Tuesday, 13 October, a group calling itself Black Rus (Czarne Rusy) published a video on Telegram in which it claimed responsibility for the incident. The announcement came about a week after the attempt. The group said the attempt was a test that Latvia had failed, that similar actions would soon take place at other parts of the border, and that the European Union and NATO would collapse after its first attack. It made open threats against NATO member states and announced a continuation of sabotage operations aimed at Belarus's neighbours.

Expert and commentator assessments

Janis Sarts, head of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence in Riga, argues that no such independent group exists and that the episode is an operation of Russian and Belarusian special services. He says independent formations of this kind are impossible under the regime conditions in Belarus and Russia, and that what is happening on the border is directly linked to the authorities of both countries. He described the activity as a pure information operation. Commentators on Latvian broadcaster LTV also saw the group as a cover for hybrid operations run by Belarusian and Russian special services.

Migration pressure on Latvia's eastern border

Latvia has for several months faced growing migratory pressure on its eastern border and a rising number of illegal crossings. Over the summer, several thousand people in total tried to cross from Belarus, and since the start of 2026 more than 12,000 people have tried, a figure equal to the total for all of 2025. Early in October, the government led by Andris Kulbergs extended until the end of the year Operation Vilkatis, which was launched in August. The operation targets illegal migrants, mainly from African and Middle Eastern countries, who use the Belarus-Latvia route to move further into the EU.