Cury's conditional endorsement

Augusto Cury, a self-help author and psychiatrist who ran as the centrist candidate of the Avante party, announced on Thursday that he would back Flávio Bolsonaro in the October 25 runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Cury took 2.89% of valid votes in the first round, 3,448,569 ballots, finishing third. His backing is conditional on eight commitments that Flávio has signed, including abolishing presidential re-election, expanding healthcare and telemedicine, protecting women, improving education and teacher salaries, supporting microenterprises and cooperatives, sustainable agriculture and the fight against corruption. Cury said he told Flávio during a video call that he would not join a future government and that his independence of thought was not negotiable. Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, both former governors defeated in the first round, also said they would back Flávio, and together with Cury the three took 5.34% on Sunday. Renan Santos, fourth with 2.24%, refused to support either candidate.

“My support is not a blank check. Supporting does not mean submitting.”

First round and runoff polling

Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator and son of Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in the first round with 47% against 45% for Lula. Lula's camp had already been trailing in the polls before the endorsement, and the new figures keep the race close.

Flávio Bolsonaro47%

Lula45%

Augusto Cury2.89%

Renan Santos2.24%

Flávio Bolsonaro

47 %

Lula

45 %

Augusto Cury

2.89 %

Renan Santos

2.24 %

Data from the article text

A Datafolha poll published on Thursday gives Flávio 52% of valid votes in the runoff against Lula's 48%, with a margin of error of two percentage points. Lula dismissed the numbers at a press conference on Thursday, saying:

“I don't take polls into account, I don't work that way. I work knowing I need more votes than Flavio to win the election. I have 17 days for that.”

Flávio Bolsonaro52%

Lula48%

Flávio Bolsonaro

52 %

Lula

48 %

Data from the article text

Lula has described this as "the least organized" campaign since he first ran for president in 1989. He posted his first selfie video urging supporters to go out and talk to people, and he hopes to mobilise about 21% of voters who abstained or cast blank or spoiled ballots in the first round, in a country where voting is compulsory between the ages of 18 and 70.

Jair Bolsonaro and the pardon question

Jair Bolsonaro, 71, is serving a 27-year sentence imposed by the Supreme Court for trying to hold on to power after losing the 2022 election to Lula, and he has always proclaimed his innocence. Because of recurring health problems he serves the sentence at home in a wealthy neighbourhood of Brasília, and he is barred from public appearances and social media. Flávio says his father will be with him at the inauguration on 5 January and will climb the ramp of the Planalto palace, and that he will grant a presidential pardon as soon as he takes office. The former president's lawyers have filed a new request for release seeking a review of the trial, which they say featured abuses by Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The request sits with Kassio Nunes Marques, appointed by Jair Bolsonaro, who intends to bring it before the full court "after the second round", but the procedure could run past the inauguration date. Law professor Thiago Bottino of the Getulio Vargas Foundation said a pardon could be signed minutes after inauguration but bureaucratic requirements would keep it from taking effect that day, and a parliamentary amnesty is another option.

Promises, protests and the runoff

Flávio focuses on building alliances and promises stricter budget discipline, tax cuts, a smaller state and tougher action against insecurity, along with a Congress that leans strongly to the right. Lula is highlighting his social programmes and the defence of sovereignty against pressure from Donald Trump. In Rio de Janeiro, thousands of students marched from the Candelária church to Cinelândia over about four hours, carrying signs reading "Fora Bolsonaro" and "Lula Presidente" and demanding more public education funding. On Thursday thousands more marched in São Paulo and other cities against a return of the far right, chanting "Sin amnistía, sin perdón". The runoff is set for 25 October.