A local vote with national stakes

Polling stations in the Makerfield constituency opened at 7am on Thursday, 18 June, for a by-election triggered when sitting Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to give Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham a clear path back to Westminster. Polls close at 10pm, with a result expected in the early hours of Friday. The seat has been Labour since its creation in 1983, but Simons won a majority of only around 5,300 in the 2024 general election, and the party faces a stiff challenge from Nigel Farage's Reform UK.

“It's a 'Sliding Doors' moment for British politics. If he loses Makerfield by one vote on Thursday, things will happen completely differently than if he wins Makerfield by one vote.”

Burnham, 56, has made two unsuccessful bids for the Labour leadership, in 2010 and 2015. He told supporters on the eve of polling,

“Change is coming, but the question tonight is 'what kind of change?'”

Burnham's path and Starmer's defiance

If Burnham wins, he will be eligible to launch a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer, 63, whose government has been battered by local-election losses, policy U-turns, and a scandal over the appointment of Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to Washington. Starmer said on Wednesday he would offer Burnham a "big" job in government, but allies of the mayor dismissed the offer, insisting "the benefit Andy has is the wind of change for not having been associated with the government's failings."

Starmer has repeated that he will fight any contest, saying he has a five-year mandate from the July 2024 landslide. Pollsters see the race as close, with Reform's candidate Robert Kenyon, a self-employed plumber, running second. The Reform campaign has been hampered by revelations of historic sexist social-media posts and awkward media appearances, while a new hard-right party, Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, has peeled away some Reform voters.

“Almost undoubtedly it's in the hands of the voters of Makerfield as to whether or not Burnham becomes prime minister.”

Rivals and social care

Former health secretary Wes Streeting has already resigned and called on Starmer to step down. Streeting met Burnham while campaigning in Makerfield on Monday, though a source told The Guardian that "no deals were done." Streeting also used a Fabian Society report to accuse the government of "overcautiousness" on social care, revealing that his plan to ban "private equity sharks" from the sector was removed from Labour's manifesto. Burnham, meanwhile, signalled his own approach, saying he would fix the social care system "this year" and "wouldn't flinch from it."

What happens next

Burnham's allies are reported to hope for a "coronation" in which Starmer stands aside voluntarily, avoiding a damaging leadership contest. Streeting has indicated he would be willing to trigger the race if Starmer does not move. The prime minister has said he plans to call Burnham "after the weekend." Several cabinet ministers considered resigning early to pressure Starmer, but were talked out of it by Burnham's camp to avoid chaos before the poll. Whatever the outcome, the Makerfield result will redraw the Labour leadership map within hours of the count.