Right-wing outsider De La Espriella wins Colombia's presidency by razor-thin margin

A razor-thin victory

Abelardo De La Espriella, the right-wing populist known as "El Tigre," won Colombia's presidential runoff on Sunday by a margin of less than one percentage point, according to preliminary results. The electoral authority is expected to declare the official results this week. De La Espriella secured almost 13 million votes, the highest tally in Colombian history, but his lead over leftist senator Iván Cepeda was just 250,830 votes. More than 26 million people voted, with over 426,000 choosing a third option and 29,000 casting blank ballots.

Pack your bags and prepare to become the opposition. Make no mistake, Mr. Cepeda. You already know how fiercely the tiger roars.

A country split in two

The vote revealed deep geographic and social divisions. De La Espriella dominated in Antioquia, Santander, and Norte de Santander, and drew strong support from the business elite, middle and lower classes, and Colombians abroad. Cepeda carried the Pacific, Caribbean, and Amazon regions, as well as Bogotá, backed by social movements, youth, and indigenous voters. The narrow margin means more than half of voters, when combining Cepeda's votes and blank ballots, did not support the president-elect.

I don't like either of them, but I'm terrified of continuity.

Villaveces, a 66-year-old retiree in Bogotá, added that De La Espriella's running mate, former finance minister José Manuel Restrepo, gave her "a little peace of mind" because "he does know politics and is well organized."

An iron-fist agenda

De La Espriella campaigned on a promise to combat violent crime with an "iron fist," modeling his security approach on Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele's mega-prisons. He plans to fumigate 330,000 hectares of coca crops and has not ruled out bombing armed groups. He also pledged to slash the size of the state, eliminate ministries, and pursue a fiscal adjustment to reach 7% economic growth. On foreign policy, he intends to exit the United Nations, rebuild ties with Israel, and deepen alignment with the United States.

There will be no off-limits areas for the state, no unpunished and untouchable criminals. There will be no organizations above the Constitution and the law.

A regional rightward shift

De La Espriella's victory adds Colombia to a wave of right-wing gains across Latin America. In the past three years, 12 elections in the region have moved rightward, with leaders like Argentina's Javier Milei and El Salvador's Bukele aligning with US President Donald Trump. Trump and Milei celebrated the result, while leftist governments viewed it as further consolidation of the trend. Steven Levitsky, a Harvard political scientist, described the new right as less liberal, more focused on security and cultural battles, and with a "more precarious relationship with democracy."

It's a trend, without a doubt, and it's a new right. It's very different from the one in the early 2000s... Now it's a right in which security and cultural battles are more important... It's a less liberal right, attacks minority rights and generally has a more precarious relationship with democracy.

Opposition and the road ahead

Cepeda has not conceded, and his campaign has challenged 33,000 polling stations, though they acknowledge it is unlikely to change the outcome. Outgoing President Gustavo Petro said he would wait for the official count before recognizing the result. Cepeda will lead the opposition from a Senate seat guaranteed to the runner-up, while the leftist Pacto Histórico holds the largest bloc in Congress. De La Espriella is set to take office on August 7 and sign 90 decrees immediately.

We are a serene force.