De la Espriella's Bukele model vs Cepeda's peace legacy as Colombia votes for president

Two polar opposite campaigns

Colombia heads to the polls today for a second-round presidential vote between Abelardo de la Espriella, the far-right lawyer known as "El Tigre", and Iván Cepeda, the left-wing senator from the Pacto Histórico alliance. De la Espriella led the first round on 31 May with 10.36 million votes (43.74 percent) against Cepeda's 9.69 million (40.90 percent). Polls now show De la Espriella close to 50 percent, with Cepeda around 44 percent and a blank-vote share above 6 percent. The first round also saw 17 million abstentions, a figure that may shift as Cepeda has moderated his programme and allied with former candidate Claudia López.

Security as the central divide

The clearest contrast is on security. De la Espriella champions a Bukele-style model of megaprisons and an iron fist against criminal groups, and has rejected the peace process initiated by outgoing President Gustavo Petro. Cepeda defends the peace process and promises to deepen the state's presence in violence-affected regions. A report published this week by the Fundación Ideas para la Paz, with UK Embassy support, warns that Colombia now faces a more complex, fragmented and challenging security scenario than four years ago. Illicit economies, fueled by cocaine production, illegal mining and extortion, generate nearly 149 billion pesos annually (roughly 40 million euros), almost double the 2026 defence budget.

Colombia today faces a more complex, fragmented and challenging security scenario than four years ago.

Economic promises under fiscal strain

Growth and public finances are the second fault line. De la Espriella calls Colombia's 2.6 percent GDP growth in 2025 "mediocre" and pledges to lift it to 7 percent, citing South Korea and Singapore as benchmarks. The OECD forecasts a 2.4 percent expansion for 2026. Cepeda proposes moving away from raw-material exports toward a production- and technology-based economy anchored in social justice and wealth redistribution. Both candidates face a tight fiscal backdrop: the fiscal deficit closed at 6.4 percent of GDP in 2025, public debt hovers near 60 percent, and The Economist ranks Colombia with the second-highest deficit among 41 economies surveyed.

Trump's endorsement and campaign alliances

The US president has injected himself into the race, publicly endorsing De la Espriella on two occasions and promising the candidate the full support and strength of the United States. De la Espriella, who built his career defending ex-President Álvaro Uribe and the Maduro-linked businessman Álex Saab, has also secured the backing of third-place candidate Paloma Valencia and of Uribe himself. Cepeda, the son of left-wing politician Manuel Cepeda Vargas murdered by state-linked paramilitaries, has tacked toward the centre, ruling out the constituent assembly that Petro had championed and seeking support from centrist voters.

If the lawyer wins, he will have the full support and strength of the United States.

Voting day

More than 40 million citizens are registered to vote across 13,742 polling stations, with 1.4 million eligible abroad. Polls open at 8:00 and close at 16:00 local time. The new president will serve a four-year term and inherit a country described by the UK-backed report as facing "six security challenges."