Poll numbers

The SW Research poll, conducted on 9–10 June among 800 internet users aged 18+, found overwhelming scepticism about Czarnek. Only 18.3% answered “yes” when asked if the PiS candidate would make a good head of government, while 64.2% said no and 17.5% were undecided.

“Przemysław Czarnek would be a bad prime minister according to seven out of ten respondents with higher education (71 percent) and a similar share of those whose net income exceeds 7000 zł (72 percent).”

The results are the latest in a string of surveys painting a grim picture for the PiS frontman, now in his fourth month as the party's official candidate.

Yes18.3%

No64.2%

Undecided17.5%

Yes

18.3 %

No

64.2 %

Undecided

17.5 %

Data from the article text

Factional rift

A separate SW Research poll for Onet from 4 June compared Czarnek with former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Asked who would be a better premier if PiS returned to power, 9.3% picked Czarnek, 21.5% chose Morawiecki, and 49.4% said neither would be good. An IBRiS survey from 3 June showed trust in Czarnek at 26.9%, against 35.7% for Morawiecki, while the most trusted PiS figure was Karol Nawrocki.

Czarnek leads the eurosceptic “maslarze” faction, which includes Patryk Jaki and Jacek Sasin. The group criticises the more centrist course of the Morawiecki government and aims to win back voters who drifted to Confederation and Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown. Morawiecki's “harcerze” camp argues PiS should instead court centre-right voters.

Kaczyński doubles down

Despite the numbers, Jarosław Kaczyński has repeatedly dismissed any change of heart. At the March convention in Kraków he declared Czarnek the man to “integrate all the party's actions.”

“I am deeply convinced that at this moment the right person is professor Przemysław Czarnek.”

In a subsequent interview with Wirtualna Polska, he insisted the decision was final and that Czarnek would lead the government if PiS wins. He also argued the candidate is more credible for a “serious part” of the current and potential electorate than Morawiecki.

Electoral math

PiS currently polls at around 25 percent (24.2% in an Opinia24 survey published 12 June). With such numbers the party cannot form a right-wing government without a coalition that includes both Confederation and Braun's grouping. Kaczyński, however, rules out any deal with Braun. The candidate choice is widely seen as a gamble to reclaim right-wing voters, but the persistent negative ratings of its nominee complicate that path.