Final polls show clear lead for De la Espriella

Two polls published on Saturday, the last legally permitted before the June 21 runoff, both place Abelardo de la Espriella comfortably ahead of Iván Cepeda. A Guarumo & Ecoanalítica survey for El Tiempo gives De la Espriella 52.6% to Cepeda's 45%, a margin of 7.6 percentage points. The study was conducted in person among 2,073 people across 54 municipalities between June 8 and 12. A second poll, by AtlasIntel for Semana magazine, shows 52.4% for De la Espriella and 44.4% for Cepeda.

The figures represent a sharp swing from the first round on May 31, when Cepeda, a senator allied with President Gustavo Petro, had been the expected frontrunner. De la Espriella's support has climbed from 43.6% in the previous month's survey, while Cepeda moved from 40% to 45%. The share of voters intending to cast a blank ballot shrank from 16.4% to 2.4%, further evidence that the campaign is consolidating around two polarised camps.

Abelardo De la Espriella52.6%

Iván Cepeda45%

Abelardo De la Espriella

52.6 %

Iván Cepeda

45 %

Data from the article text

Closing rallies in Bogotá and Buga

Cepeda held his final campaign rally in central Bogotá on Saturday, telling supporters: "Vamos sobre todo a gobernar con la gente, con los movimientos sociales." The crowd chanted "Se ve, se siente, Cepeda presidente" and waved Colombian, indigenous and Palestinian flags. De la Espriella was scheduled to close his campaign on Sunday in Buga, a city in the southwest of the country.

Both candidates are vying for votes amid Colombia's worst wave of violence in a decade, with frequent guerrilla attacks, massacres and targeted killings in remote regions. De la Espriella has campaigned on a "mano dura" platform against crime and presents himself as an outsider, though he has secured backing from most traditional right-wing parties. Cepeda pledges to continue Petro's policies, which include a historic reduction in poverty but also an unsuccessful effort to negotiate peace with armed groups.

Legal challenges over dual nationality and past cases

A former magistrate of the National Electoral Council, Luis Guillermo Pérez, filed a legal action seeking to bar De la Espriella from office on the grounds that his dual Colombian and US citizenship creates a conflict of interest. The complaint argues that the oath of allegiance required for US naturalisation is incompatible with the duties of Colombia's head of state. Twenty former judges from Colombia's top courts, including the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court, also signed a statement warning that the US citizenship acquired by naturalisation disqualifies someone from serving as president.

Separately, Cepeda lodged criminal complaints against De la Espriella with the Attorney General's Office and the International Criminal Court, alleging conspiracy, terrorism financing and illicit enrichment tied to the peace process with paramilitary groups two decades ago. De la Espriella dismissed the move, saying Cepeda's "old tricks will be buried by the will of the people at the ballot box."

Trump endorsement

US President Donald Trump weighed in on Wednesday with his second public message backing De la Espriella.

“Si Abelardo gana, gracias a su competencia y amor por su país, contará con el apoyo y la fuerza total de Estados Unidos.”

The endorsement adds an international dimension to a race already shaped by domestic polarisation and the transfer of votes from right-wing first-round candidate Paloma Valencia, who won more than 1.5 million votes and whose supporters are expected to break heavily for De la Espriella.

Polarisation and Petro's approval gap

The Guarumo & Ecoanalítica survey found that President Petro's approval rating has improved in the past month, with 50.3% of respondents rating his performance as good or very good. Yet that approval is not transferring to his preferred successor. The same poll highlights a deeply polarised electorate in which false news, judicial maneuvers and mutual accusations of vote-buying have marked the final stretch of the campaign.