The European Union has cemented a significant rightward shift in its migration policy, with negotiators from the European Parliament, the Council, and the Commission agreeing on a new Returns Regulation. The deal, struck on Monday, introduces the possibility for member states to establish 'return centres' in third countries, a model directly inspired by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's controversial agreement with Albania.

A New Legal Framework for Deportations

The new regulation breaks the existing link that required a deported person to be returned to their country of origin or one with which they have a demonstrable connection. Now, individuals can be sent to a third country as long as a bilateral agreement for a 'return centre' is in place. The legislation also allows for longer detention periods for those awaiting deportation, extending up to two years in cases where there is a risk of absconding or a lack of cooperation with authorities. This can also apply to unaccompanied minors as a "last resort" in extreme situations.

“This new regulation will accelerate the return process and increase the return of people who do not have the legal right to stay in the EU.”

Political Divisions and the 'Meloni Model'

The agreement represents a major victory for right-wing parties and advocates of a more orthodox migration management approach. While the Italian experiment in Albania has processed only a few hundred people, far below expectations, it has had a high impact on the public debate. A number of member states are already exploring similar options, with groups of two to five countries actively sounding out potential partners in Africa, the Balkans, and Central Asia. Germany, Austria, and Greece are reportedly very interested, while the Netherlands maintains a restrictive approach under its new government.

Spain's Isolation

Spain has emerged as the clear outlier, with the government of Pedro Sánchez stating its opposition to the measure. This leaves Spain isolated on migration policy within the bloc, as the prevailing direction in Europe diverges sharply from the Spanish executive's stance. The final text still requires formal adoption by the Council and approval by the European Parliament, where Spain is likely to again voice its rejection.

Implementation and Human Rights Concerns

The agreement was delayed from the previous week due to disagreements over the implementation timeline. A compromise was reached: the regulation will enter into force one day after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU, but member states will have up to 12 months to apply the most complex provisions. The regulation is the final piece of the European migration package, whose main element, the Migration and Asylum Pact, formally enters into force on 12 June. Human rights organisations have strongly criticised the plan, warning of accountability gaps, risks of chain deportations to unsafe countries, and arbitrary detention.

“There can be problems of accountability and human rights oversight, risks of chain deportations to unsafe countries, arbitrary detentions and numerous other violations of human rights and international law.”