Warnings from Brussels

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas addressed escalating Russian interference following an EU-Moldova Association Council meeting with Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan in Brussels on 5 October. Kallas stated that European nations have recorded a sharp rise in sabotage attempts, hybrid operations, and airspace breaches over recent weeks. Over the preceding weekend, Russian missiles and drones entered Moldovan airspace during strikes directed at Ukrainian targets. The breach followed an earlier incident on 30 September, when Moldova's defence ministry tracked three drones in sovereign airspace as Russia launched widespread strikes against electrical facilities in Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions. Kallas told reporters that Moscow's actions seek to paralyse European institutions and spread fear among populations, adding that the European Union must respond by building resilience and expanding support for Ukraine.

“The Kremlin is putting human lives at risk across the continent.”

Call for a collective NATO response

Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius called on NATO to adopt a structured operational plan to counter hybrid operations extending across the continent. Speaking to WELT, Sinkevičius argued that allied governments must recognise that disruptions in western European hubs cannot be viewed in isolation from eastern flank pressure. He cited ongoing security challenges affecting Lithuania and neighbouring countries, including years of drone incursions, sustained GPS jamming, physical sabotage, and instrumentalised migration managed through Belarus. Sinkevičius described the Russian administration as irrational and unpredictable, emphasizing that Moscow had successfully reorganized its domestic economy around wartime production.

“What we need is a concrete plan for how the alliance reacts. I hope we will see that plan very soon.”

Escalating cross-border incidents

The political warnings follow several specific incidents across allied territory and adjacent waters. German authorities directly attributed an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle airport in August to Russian operatives. In the Baltic region, Denmark accused a Russian naval frigate of firing flares at a Danish military helicopter during operations at sea. Poland's armed forces scrambled combat aircraft after a Russian military helicopter briefly violated Polish airspace. On 5 October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russian drones had struck and sunk a cargo ship carrying grain near Romanian waters, although authorities in Romania did not independently confirm the report.

Defence posture and deterrence

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that Berlin anticipates further hybrid actions, pointing to combined drone disruptions and cyberattacks as Europe approaches winter. Merz affirmed that Germany will maintain logistical and energy support for Kyiv through the upcoming winter, which Berlin forecasts as the most severe phase since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Sinkevičius commended Merz for directing German support to Ukraine with minimal media noise while advancing forward-defence commitments in the Baltic region. Under bilateral security arrangements, a permanent German brigade stationed in Lithuania is scheduled to achieve full operational readiness by the end of 2027. Sinkevičius stated that a Russian military victory in Ukraine would inevitably direct Moscow's pressure toward other European borders. Russian officials have rejected all allegations raised by Western governments and intelligence agencies regarding covert operations.