Norwegian historians rule out Nobel Peace Prize for Donald Trump in 2026

Evaluation of Trump's candidacy

Norwegian historians and researchers tracking the Nobel Peace Prize dismiss Donald Trump's prospects of securing the award this year. Asle Sveen, a historian who has researched the Nobel Prize for 40 years, stated that the American president has no path to the honour despite his public campaign. Trump has frequently asserted that his diplomatic interventions brought an end to eight wars while accusing Norway of obstructing his recognition. Sveen noted that Trump appears to understand that he will not receive the prize, observing that starting a catastrophic war in the Middle East makes such an award unfeasible.

“Can Trump get the Nobel Peace Prize this year? Absolutely not. Even if he repeats that he has already ended eight wars, and Norway is in his opinion to blame for the lack of an award so far.”

Impact of foreign policy and the Venezuela episode

Fellow Nobel historian Oeivind Stenersen evaluated Trump's foreign policy as an erosion of the post-war international order. Stenersen argued that Trump's unilateralism and megalomania pose severe challenges to core Western values. The historians also addressed the previous year's episode involving Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado, who handed her Nobel medal to Trump after winning the prize. Stenersen explained that Machado sought American backing for Venezuelan democratization but found herself sidelined once Trump pursued negotiations with the ruling authorities.

“She was counting on his support for the democratization of Venezuela, but was pushed aside when the president started making deals with the existing authorities. Trump is not interested in the regime. He is interested in doing business. In this respect, it was a fiasco.”

Influence on the Norwegian Nobel Committee

Haakon Gjerloew, director at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), explained that Trump's actions shape the atmosphere surrounding the prize regardless of his viability as a candidate. While official nominations serve as the baseline for the Norwegian Nobel Committee, broader geopolitical conditions guide the members during deliberations. Gjerloew observed that the US administration's posture exerts indirect pressure on the committee's decision-making process, creating conditions where committee members could make a bolder selection.

“Direct criticism is one thing, but there is also indirect criticism. Trump is practically in the room all the time. Paradoxically, the US president's policy may prompt the Committee to make a bolder choice.”

Contenders for international law and institutional norms

Gjerloew identified institutional bodies defending international legal frameworks as primary contenders for the upcoming prize. The International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and the Committee to Protect Journalists stand out among potential recipients because their mandates counter unilateral political pressures. These organizations focus on international law, established institutions, and governance rules that gain heightened relevance in the geopolitical environment shaped by Trump. Stenersen added that Trump's persistent pursuit of the honour generated substantial global visibility around the award itself.

“We can say whatever we want about Donald Trump, but he really drew attention to the Nobel Prize. Thanks to Trump, so many people ask not only about his chances, but about the prize as such.”