Germany records nearly 10,000 heat-related deaths in 2026, surpassing any full year since 2016

Record death toll

Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) estimates that 9,800 people have died from heat-related causes so far this year, as of 19 July. The number is modelled rather than counted: the RKI derives it from the Federal Statistical Office's mortality data and readings from 52 stations of the German Weather Service, and the margins are wide. For Hesse alone the institute's calculations produce a range of 980 to 1,670 deaths against a central estimate of about 1,350. A few weeks ago the Federal Statistical Office was still putting the national figure at 7,100. The figure already exceeds the toll of any full calendar year since 2016, when the institute began its current monitoring series. The previous high was in 2018, when roughly 9,000 heat-related deaths were recorded over the entire year. More than half of this year's fatalities, over 5,000, occurred during the intense heatwave in the second half of June, when temperatures reached 40°C across much of the country. The RKI counts from the beginning of April, and 7,900 deaths had been recorded by 12 July, so the single week of 13 to 19 July added another 1,900. The total for the year to 19 July is also higher than the totals for 2023, 2024 and 2025 combined.

Consequently, we anticipate that heatwaves occurring this summer will similarly lead to increased mortality.

Current heatwave pushes temperatures past 40°C

On 30 July, a new blast of heat sent thermometers above 40°C in several regions. The German Weather Service (DWD) recorded a preliminary high of 40.5°C in Bernburg an der Saale, with Kitzingen, Ohlsbach, Frankfurt am Main and Rheinfelden also topping 40°C. The states of Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria set new July temperature records. The all-time German record still stands at 41.7°C, measured in Neißemünde-Coschen in Brandenburg on 28 June. Möckern-Drewitz in Saxony-Anhalt held the national record only briefly that day, with 41.5°C. The DWD expects a brief cooling over the weekend before temperatures climb back to 30–35°C on Monday and Tuesday.

Elderly bear the brunt

Heat deaths are concentrated among the oldest age groups. According to the RKI's breakdown, 5,420 of the victims were aged 85 or older, 2,460 were between 75 and 84, 1,260 were 65 to 74, and 630 were under 65. In absolute terms more women than men die, which the RKI attributes to the higher share of women in the oldest age groups; among the victims aged 85 and over, 60 per cent were women. The institute notes that heatstroke is rarely the direct cause of death; instead, high temperatures combine with pre-existing chronic conditions to prove fatal. Mortality rises sharply in weeks when the average temperature exceeds 20°C. In the week of 13–19 July, the nationwide average was 20.9°C, and twelve of Germany's sixteen federal states recorded averages above 20°C.

Political pressure for a heat protection strategy

The mounting death toll has intensified demands for a coordinated national response. Evelyn Schötz, the Left party's spokesperson for elderly care, said nursing homes are not adequately prepared. National recommendations for heat protection plans in long-term care already exist, she said, and what is missing is their implementation; her party wants public money to make care institutions heat-resistant through shading, cooling systems and structural work.

For many people, heat is just uncomfortable. For those needing permanent care, it can be life-threatening.

Eugen Brysch, head of the German Foundation for Patient Protection, put the cost of adapting hospitals, nursing homes and other buildings at 30 billion euros. He called for legal requirements to keep indoor temperatures below 25°C in new constructions. Former health minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) urged immediate action, telling the Rheinische Post that "thousands of human lives" are at stake. He wants heat information portals, telephone hotlines, cooled rooms and cooling points in public spaces rolled out nationwide, and over the longer term more green space and less sealed surface in cities. Franziska Brantner, the leader of the Greens, accused the federal government of failing to act as the death toll rises, saying heat has stopped being a secondary issue and become an immediate threat to the population. The German Hospital Association (DKG) pointed out that only a small fraction of hospital rooms currently have air conditioning or other cooling systems. Its own expert report puts the investment needed to make hospitals climate-resilient at 31 billion euros, a figure separate from Brysch's. DKG chief executive Gerald Gaß said the association had expressly warned that fans and blackout curtains will no longer be enough as a standard in many hospitals, and called on the federal and state governments to create the conditions for an investment programme this year. In North Rhine-Westphalia, health minister Karl-Josef Laumann (CDU) announced a state concept to fund air conditioning in long-term care facilities, arguing that heat warnings must be taken as seriously as flood alerts.

A patchwork of measures, but no national plan

While some states have launched long-term projects (greening schools in NRW, doubling Berlin's tree count by 2040), immediate measures remain scarce. RP Online's editorial calls for a federally binding, financed heat protection strategy instead of the current patchwork of state-level initiatives. Short-term needs include publicly accessible cooled spaces in libraries and other buildings, heat-protection films and external blinds for hospitals and care homes, and telephone hotlines for at-risk individuals. The federal Climate and Transformation Fund channels billions into climate protection, but critics say too little reaches the quick adaptation measures that could prevent deaths this summer. Dirk Messner, the head of the Federal Environment Agency, said the dead themselves go unremarked: "I find it irritating how little we as a society have talked about the several thousand heat deaths we had at the end of June and the beginning of July. The heat dead seem to remain invisible." His agency expects around ten additional hot days a year by the middle of the century, by which point Berlin would regularly be as hot as Madrid is now.