Speaker admits a possible House loss

House Speaker Mike Johnson told Fox News that he does not know what he will do if Republicans lose the House majority in the November midterm elections. He said he is focused on keeping the majority and that he is travelling the country constantly. Johnson has repeatedly argued that Republicans will defy past patterns and gain House seats, but when raising money and urging turnout he has also mentioned the possibility of defeat. He warned that a Democratic majority would lead to new impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. Reuters described the remarks as an apparent public acknowledgment that Republicans could lose in November.

Johnson also said Republicans would not be to blame in that case.

“If we were to lose the majority, I don't know what the next chapter of my life will look like.”

Internal polling alarms Republicans

In late September, top Republicans across House GOP leadership, leading political operations and individual campaigns received internal polling, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity. The results showed a harsh environment for the party in power, with several formerly safe red seats in trouble. Key seats in Kentucky, North Carolina and Nevada, areas Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024, were competitive. All three vulnerable GOP-held seats in Iowa looked doomed, and Republican incumbents who have not had to run serious races in years are vulnerable from Oklahoma to Wisconsin. With less than four weeks before Election Day, Republicans are beginning to brace for worst-case scenarios.

In New York's 17th district, Rep. Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican, faces Democrat Cait Conley, a military veteran and former counterterrorism official during the Biden administration. NPR notes the district elected a Republican to the House in 2024 and also voted for Kamala Harris. Lawler broke with the administration over its decision to end a policy that shielded nearly 350,000 Haitian migrants from deportation. He says he got the White House to temporarily extend work authorizations for beneficiaries of that program, but those authorizations have since expired.

Talarico's absence in the Texas Senate race

James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, has not held a campaign event in more than a week, and his campaign says he is recovering from the flu. His last in-person event was a fundraiser in New York City on September 29, and a day later he appeared virtually before the U.S. Hispanic Business Council from a hotel room. Polls show him in position to be the first Democrat in a generation to win statewide in Texas. His opponent, Ken Paxton, has attacked the absence for days, and at a rally with Trump on Wednesday he led the crowd in a chant of "Where is James Talarico?" Campaign spokesman JT Ennis said Talarico had held "more than 100 public events" before getting sick. Talarico described his illness during his last public appearance.

“Last night it got so bad that I went to the urgent care here in Dallas and I was diagnosed with the flu and so I'm running a fever and I'm at my most contagious right now.”

Talarico's campaign said he would return to the trail this weekend. Paxton's campaign sent an email blast on Friday saying "Still no proof of life," and Republican supporters have created "missing posters" for him.

Trump's check pitch

Le Monde reports that Trump, trailing in the polls, believes he has found a formula to turn public opinion around before the November 3 elections for the House and one-third of the Senate. Since September 10, he has been promising voters a check, a pitch the outlet frames as the "Trump dividend." The article asks whether such promises can help win an election, but the portion available describes the promise and the electoral stakes rather than its cost or legal basis.