Climate change makes Europe's drought five times more likely as heat, not rain, drives evaporation

A new kind of drought

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, an international consortium of climate scientists, released an analysis on 23 July 2026 showing that the severe drought gripping Europe this summer is primarily driven by heat, not by a lack of rainfall. The study compared current conditions with a world without 1.4°C of warming and found that the probability of such a drought has increased fivefold. In Western Europe, the chance of the evaporation conditions observed this summer is now 80 times greater due to climate change. With the second half of summer still ahead, the economic and environmental costs are expected to rise.

Without rapid and drastic emission cuts, Europe is heading for a future where these kinds of hot, dry summers occur again and again.

Evaporation overtakes rainfall deficit

Traditionally, drought is defined as a prolonged period of significantly below-normal precipitation. But the WWA analysis argues that high temperatures are now the dominant factor. "There is less rain, but it is not really possible to attribute that to climate change," said KNMI drought researcher Job Dullaart, who contributed to the study. "More water evaporates because it is warmer, and that is a direct consequence of climate change." Professor Marijke Huysmans of VUB and KU Leuven explained that heat and low rainfall reinforce each other: in July, Belgium recorded only 1.9 mm of rain against a 70 mm average, while the remaining soil moisture evaporated faster.

Often those two reinforce each other. There is little rain and the water still in the soil evaporates faster due to the heat.

The pattern was especially stark in Spain, France, and Portugal, which had a wet winter that replenished groundwater, only to see rapid drying from April onward. The lush vegetation that grew during the wet period then became fuel for wildfires.

Cascading impacts across the continent

The drought's economic toll is mounting. On the Rhine, one of Europe's busiest inland waterways, water levels have fallen so low that ships can carry only a third of their normal load. France expects its worst maize harvest in 50 years, while Hungary's sunflower and maize yields are projected to fall below the record drought of 2022. In Belgium, the Meuse river briefly dipped below critical flow last week, threatening drinking water supplies via the Albert Canal. The country has been under code orange for drought since last week, with groundwater levels below normal at more than three-quarters of measuring stations and rising salt content in some rivers. Belgium ranks 18th globally in water stress, according to the World Population Review database.

Nature under strain

In the Netherlands, the Veluwezoom National Park is experiencing extreme dryness. Ranger Rinke Luijten of Natuurmonumenten said July is drier than the severe drought years of 2018 and 2019. Dried-out heathland, prematurely discoloured birch trees, and cracked pond beds are visible. The organisation is now intervening by having a company refill several ponds with rainwater each week.

This is really an extreme year. In July it is drier than in the very dry years 2018 and 2019.

What the models show

The WWA study involved climate experts from 12 European countries who analysed weather statistics and applied climate models. They found no clear downward trend in summer rainfall, but the increase in evaporation due to higher temperatures is unequivocal. June 2026 was the warmest June on record in Western Europe, according to the Copernicus climate service. The researchers warn that with current policies pointing to 2.8°C of warming, such hot, dry summers will become recurrent. "The same rainfall deficit would not have led to this drought in the pre-industrial climate," said Mariam Zachariah of Imperial College London during a press briefing.