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Today’s Brief

Ceuta burns Brussels' patience

Ceuta strains Europe as Russia pounds Kyiv and Danube idles Hungary's reactor

Europe woke to border panic, heat alerts and a power squeeze, while war and political risk kept moving faster than institutions. The common thread is capacity: states can still react quickly, but their buffers look thin.

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Other · Updated 1h ago

Climate: from mitigation to adaptation

The crash of two firefighting helicopters in Greece and the multi-year low levels of major European rivers indicate an escalation of climate-related crises impacting emergency services and critical infrastructure across the continent.

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© Do Rzeczy
Conflicts·Jul 20

Iran fires on Hormuz tankers as ninth US strike night pushes crude above $90; Tehran says no petrol will pass

Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz unsafe for even a single drop of oil after two tankers exploded on the southern passage Sunday night, while US CENTCOM pressed a ninth straight night of strikes against Iranian command-and-control targets.

Opening of hostilities

US Central Command confirmed that its forces struck Iranian military command centres, air-defence systems, coastal-surveillance posts, naval capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communication networks for the ninth consecutive night into Monday. The strikes, lasting roughly three hours, aim to degrade Iran's ability to attack merchant vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM said.

Iran's semi-official Tasnim agency reported that American missiles hit Tabriz, Chabahar, Konarak, Bandar Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini on Monday morning.

Two tankers disabled on southern route

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced late Sunday that two tankers exploded while attempting to use what it calls the dangerous southern corridor of the strait. The IRGC said the vessels were under US pressure and had switched off navigation systems, ignoring warnings from the IRGC control base.

This corridor will not be safe for the transit of petrochemical products or even a single drop of oil and gas.

— IRGC

Britain's UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a fire on a vessel eight nautical miles northwest of Kumzar in northern Oman. Two other ships abandoned their transit attempts, according to the IRGC.

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Oil price reaction

Brent crude for September delivery broke above $90 a barrel during Asian trading on Monday, the first time since 11 June it has crossed that threshold. Brent rose 2.64 percent to $90.43 on ICE, while West Texas Intermediate for August delivery climbed 2.34 percent to $84.42 on NYMEX. According to the Financial Times, prices are up more than 23 percent this month, putting them on track for the steepest monthly gain since March.

Brent crude price during July 2026 escalation (USD per barrel) · $/bbl
2026-07-11
88.2 $/bbl
2026-07-14
88.8 $/bbl
2026-07-17
87.6 $/bbl
2026-07-18
88.3 $/bbl
2026-07-20
90.43 $/bbl

Analysts at ANZ noted that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had collapsed amid the safety fears. Higher US production was insufficient to offset the disruption in the Persian Gulf, they added.

Regional retaliatory strikes

Beyond the strait, the IRGC launched ballistic missiles at US aircraft stationed at Aqaba airport in Jordan and struck American military assets at Camp Al-Adiri and Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait, as well as targets in Syria. Jordanian authorities said some missiles were intercepted. Kuwait's General Staff confirmed a hostile drone attack, which the IRGC claims destroyed an early-warning radar and an MQ-9 drone hangar at Ali Al Salem; Kuwaiti officials maintain the strike hit a civilian water-desalination station.

Sirens sounded in the Bahraini capital Manama, and the US embassy warned of possible strikes in the city centre. Iran also hit a special-forces command post at Al-Tanf in Syria. Washington confirmed at least three US soldiers killed since Friday, with possible remains of a fourth found in Jordan.

The brief truce and record oil exports

Before the ceasefire collapsed in early July, Iran exploited the one-month window to ship a record volume of crude to China. Between mid-June and mid-July Tehran sold about 70 million barrels of oil worth $5 to $6 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. Roughly 20 tankers departed Iranian ports in late June, including the Diona, Hero II, Sonia 1 and Stream.

Using its shadow fleet and the port of Chabahar, which lies outside the Strait of Hormuz with direct open-water access, Iran delivered close to 50 million barrels of crude and condensate to Chinese ports in just two weeks, a record tracked by tanker-monitoring systems cited by Euronews. Some cargoes were transferred via ship-to-ship operations off eastern Malaysia before reaching private Chinese refineries.

Ceasefire breakdown and sanctions return

The 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June collapsed after less than a month. President Donald Trump declared the truce over at the start of July, and Washington reimposed its blockade on Iranian oil exports. Tehran responded by closing the strait and striking US allies across the region.

We have repeatedly tried to engage with Iran and will continue to do so. If an opportunity for dialogue opens, we will gladly take it.

— Marco Rubio

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aragczi told the IRNA news agency that Tehran would end the war only after gaining military advantage on the battlefield, which would then open the path to negotiations.

US-Iran conflict and oil market timeline, June–July 2026
  1. Jun 17, 202614-point ceasefire memorandum signed between the US and Iran
  2. Late June 2026About 20 Iranian tankers depart for Asia, mostly bound for China
  3. Mid-July 2026Iran completes record crude deliveries of ~70 million barrels valued at $5-6 billion
  4. Early July 2026Ceasefire collapses; US reimposes blockade on Iranian oil exports
  5. Jul 12, 2026US begins wave of nightly strikes against Iranian military targets
  6. Jul 19, 10:00 PMIRGC announces two tankers exploded on the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz
  7. Jul 20, 06:00 AMBrent crude opens above $90/bbl in Asian trading; tanker traffic through Hormuz collapses

Pump prices in Poland

Poland's Reflex brokerage forecasts that average Pb95 petrol will rise to about 7.30 zloty per litre this week, a 20-groszy increase, while Pb98 will reach 8.20 zloty per litre. The return of full-scale conflict in the Middle East and the Hormuz blockade have driven a sharp increase in crude and fuel prices on global markets, Reflex said.

Strait of Hormuz · Tehran · Washington · Beijing · Kuwait City · Manama · Aqaba
Marco RubioDonald TrumpAbbas Aragczi
Donald TrumpWashington, D.C.BeijingKuwaitTehranWashingtonMarco RubioTeheranAbbas AraghchiCieśnina OrmuzStrait of HormuzDétroit d'OrmuzStraße von HormusManama

8 sources

  • Iran ustanowił rekord w eksporcie ropy do Chin. Tak ominął cieśninę Ormuz
    Do Rzeczy·Jul 20
  • Konflikt USA-Iran trwa. Co dalej z żeglugą przez cieśninę Ormuz? - Forsal.pl
    forsal.pl·Jul 20
  • Iran uderzył na Bliskim Wschodzie. Eksplozje tankowców i alarmy w kilku krajach
    Wprost·Jul 20
  • Zmiana w cenach ropy. Rynki gwałtownie reagują na wieści z Iranu
    TVN24·Jul 20
  • Ceny ropy gwałtownie w górę. Inwestorzy w panice kupują surowiec - Forsal.pl
    forsal.pl·Jul 20
  • Ropa z najwyższą ceną od ponad miesiąca, a napięcie na Bliskim Wschodzie dalej eskaluje
    wnp.pl·Jul 20
  • Eksplozje tankowców. Iran bierze odwet za najnowsze ataki USA
    rmf24.pl·Jul 20
  • Podwyżki na rynku ropy po atakach USA na Iran. Analitycy są zaniepokojeni
    Business Insider·Jul 20

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