Poland's growth forecast

On Tuesday, 13 October 2026, the International Monetary Fund published new forecasts for Poland and the world. The fund kept its 2026 growth forecast for Poland at 3.4% and raised the 2027 figure by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5%. It projects average inflation of 3.2% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, and a current account balance of -1.9% of GDP in 2026 and -1.5% in 2027. The report does not give a justification for these forecasts.

20263.4%

20272.5%

2026

3.4 %

2027

2.5 %

Data from the article text

A commentary published the same day expects growth to slow noticeably in the following years, citing two causes: the fading impulse from EU funds and a sharper tightening of fiscal policy. The commentator considers a slowdown that steep unlikely. The commentary also recalls that IMF economists have historically underestimated Poland's growth potential.

Nominal GDP and Switzerland

Finance Minister Andrzej Domański commented on the forecasts on X. He wrote that, according to the latest IMF forecast, Polish nominal GDP will overtake Switzerland's in 2027. His post opened with the words "the race is on" and carried the same claim in Polish.

“The race is on! According to the latest IMF forecast, Poland's nominal GDP will nonetheless overtake Switzerland in 2027.”

Global outlook and the AI shock

The IMF expects world growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the April edition, and 3.4% in 2027, up from the 3.2% it forecast in April. The commentary says a technological revolution linked to artificial intelligence is pushing the global economy forward, while a price shock in oil and gas markets slows it. IMF economists consider the technology impulse stronger than the energy shock.

The fund expects global inflation to stop falling steadily, mainly because of a negative supply shock caused by war. Inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025, then ease to 4.1% in 2027. The 2026 increase is driven mainly by higher energy and food prices.

Africa's place in the growth ranking

The commentary's most striking point concerns African economies in the IMF data. Six African countries rank among the ten fastest-growing economies by average growth over 2026-31: Sudan, Guinea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Benin. In 2011-19 only two countries from the group were among the leaders, Ethiopia and Rwanda, and earlier leaders were mainly from East Asia.

The commentary sets this against the Asian economic miracle of recent decades, which it describes through China's poverty reduction and South Korea's state-guided development. It asks whether Africa stands at the threshold of a miracle of its own. The piece acknowledges that Africa is often associated with extreme poverty, civil wars, weak infrastructure, nepotism and corruption.

Other forecasts for Poland

The World Bank raised its forecast for Poland earlier in October 2026, to 3.6% growth in 2026, 2.9% in 2027 and 2.7% in 2028. The IMF's 3.4% for 2026 therefore sits below the World Bank figure, and its 2027 forecast of 2.5% is lower than the World Bank's 2.9%.

IMF3.4%

World Bank3.6%

IMF

3.4 %

World Bank

3.6 %

Data from the article text

The sequence of forecast updates for Poland in October 2026 runs from the World Bank's revision in early October to the IMF publication on 13 October.