Iran suspends indirect peace talks with U.S., threatens full Hormuz blockade over Israeli offensive in Lebanon

Negotiations collapse

Iran has suspended all indirect message exchanges with the United States through mediators, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Monday. The decision was taken in response to Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon, which Tehran says violate the terms of the ceasefire that began on 8 April. "Given the continued crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and considering that Lebanon was one of the preconditions for the ceasefire, and that this ceasefire has been violated on all fronts, including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team suspends dialogue and the exchange of texts through mediators," Tasnim stated.

Violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. The U.S. and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation.

Iranian state television said the probability of the ceasefire with the U.S. ending was high if Israel did not end its offensive in Lebanon. The Iranian demands include an immediate cessation of Israeli military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as a complete withdrawal from occupied areas in Lebanon.

Strait of Hormuz threat

Tasnim reported that Iran and the so-called Resistance Front — which includes Shiite allies in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq — have set an agenda to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts, including the Bab El Mandeb Strait off the coast of Yemen. The stated aim is to "punish" Israel and its supporters. Around a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the war began on 28 February.

Mohsen Rezaee, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, wrote on social media that the "patience of the armed forces has its limits," threatening that Iran would not tolerate the continued U.S. military blockade or the escalation in Lebanon. Iran's central military command added that residents of northern Israel would have to "leave if they don't want to be harmed" if Israel proceeds with attacks on Beirut.

Israeli operations in Lebanon

Israeli forces have advanced deeper into southern Lebanon than at any point since ending their occupation in 2000. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered fresh attacks on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, and the Israeli military issued evacuation orders for residents of those areas. Defence Minister Israel Katz promised that Beirut would not see a lull in attacks unless Hezbollah ceased launching drones against northern Israel.

This escalation comes despite Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri informing the Trump administration that Hezbollah was ready for a full and immediate ceasefire. Berri's adviser Ali Hamdan told Axios that Lebanon had pledged to guarantee its implementation. The Israeli military has struck Beirut twice since the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire came into force on 16 April, most recently on Thursday.

Diplomatic efforts and U.S. position

The United States has tried to separate events in Lebanon from the negotiations with Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio proposed a plan for "gradual de-escalation" to Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Sunday. President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested in recent days that Washington and Tehran are close to a permanent deal, but no formal agreement has been reached.

Pakistan has served as the principal mediator in the indirect talks. France requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Lebanon, estimating on Sunday that "nothing justified the significant escalation underway in Lebanon." Meanwhile, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian told Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in a phone call that Iran is ready to facilitate maritime traffic and guarantee navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IRNA news agency.

Market and military impact

Oil prices rose sharply following the reports. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped almost $5 a barrel to $97.44. The three-month war has killed thousands of people, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, and has caused global economic pain by pushing up energy prices. Over the weekend, the U.S. struck Iranian military sites in the south of the country, targeting radar and drone control systems in the city of Goruk and on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it responded by targeting a U.S. base in Kuwait.

A memorandum of understanding should stipulate very clearly that Iran will not have nuclear weapons.

Tehran reiterated on Monday that its nuclear programme was not part of the discussions "at this stage," contrary to Trump's expectations.