Italy braces for heatwave as African anticyclone builds, 40°C peaks in Florence and Sardinia

A prolonged and intense heatwave is about to grip Italy as a powerful African anticyclone expands across the Mediterranean, forecasters warn. The high-pressure system will act like an atmospheric shield, suppressing precipitation and drawing very hot, dry air from the Sahara. After a scorching weekend, temperatures will climb further, with the peak expected from the middle of next week.

The anticyclone arrives

A massive subtropical anticyclonic promontory, commonly called the African anticyclone, is pushing northward. Mattia Gussoni, meteorologist at iLMeteo.it, explained that the configuration will open a direct corridor with subtropical latitudes over Algeria, Tunisia and Libya.

These air masses, born very hot and originally very dry over the Sahara desert, will travel northward undergoing a partial metamorphosis: crossing the Mediterranean Sea surface, the air layer closest to the water will load with humidity.

The result will be a long period of stable, sunny weather with temperatures well above the climatic average.

Weekend heat preview

Already on Saturday 13 and Sunday 14 June, the mercury will surge. Maximum temperatures are forecast to reach 28–35°C in the North (with Bologna experiencing notable heat), 30–32°C in the Centre, and around 30°C in the South and on the major islands. Sunday will bring a peak of 34°C in the Centre-North, with high but harmless cloudiness over central-northern regions.

We are heading towards a decidedly more stable and hot phase, which will impose itself undisturbed over the entire Peninsula.

Brief early‑week instability

Between Monday 15 and Tuesday 16 June, a modest and rapid parenthesis of instability will interrupt the heat build-up. Cooler air infiltrations could trigger isolated afternoon thunderstorms, particularly in the North‑East and along the Apennine reliefs. For the rest of Italy, ample sunshine and dry conditions will persist.

Peak heat from mid‑week

Once the fleeting instability passes, the anticyclone will strengthen decisively. From the middle of next week, temperatures are set to climb sharply. Forecast models indicate that the plains of the North and much of the Centre‑South will see thermometers widely surpassing 35°C, with local peaks touching 40°C in Florence and in inland areas of Sardinia. Along the coasts, the high humidity accumulated over the sea will turn the extreme heat into oppressive mugginess.