Congressional preferences and approval ratings

A survey conducted by NBC News and Telemundo between 21 and 28 September shows Latino voters favoring Democratic control of Congress by a 24-point margin ahead of the 3 November midterm elections. Among 800 registered Latino respondents, 59% prefer a Democratic-led Congress compared with 35% who favor Republican control, doubling the Democratic advantage measured in September 2024. Donald Trump's approval rating among Latino voters stands at 27%, while 69% disapprove of his performance. Negative feelings toward the president reach 67%, with 60% describing their view as very negative, compared to 55% expressing negative feelings in September 2024. A separate CBS News and YouGov survey published on Sunday recorded similar numbers, showing 60% of Hispanic likely voters backing Democratic House candidates against 39% supporting Republicans.

Democratic control59%

Republican control35%

Democratic control

59 %

Republican control

35 %

Data from the article text

Economic discontent and living costs

Dissatisfaction with the economic situation represents the primary driver of falling support for the administration. Overall, 78% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's management of the cost of living, while 74% disapprove of his general handling of the economy. In the survey, 52% of respondents ranked inflation and living expenses as their first or second most pressing concern, and 33% identified it as their primary issue. A total of 65% of respondents stated that administration policies worsened the national economic situation, whereas 23% saw positive effects. In addition, 63% reported that their household income fails to keep pace with rising everyday expenses. Among voters identifying the cost of living as their principal priority, Democrats maintain a 22-point lead over Republicans for congressional control.

Cost of living78%

Economy74%

Immigration69%

Foreign policy68%

Border security58%

Cost of living

78 %

Economy

74 %

Immigration

69 %

Foreign policy

68 %

Border security

58 %

Data from the article text

Immigration enforcement and deportation pushback

Immigration policy has generated substantial pushback among Latino voters, with 69% disapproving of the administration's measures and 58% disapproving of its border security approach. While 83% of respondents endorse the deportation of undocumented immigrants convicted of serious criminal offenses, only 37% support deporting all undocumented residents. Two-thirds of respondents, or 66%, believe deportation policies have gone too far. The enforcement measures have direct personal reach within the community: 31% reported that they or someone close to them began carrying identity papers, and 27% know someone detained or deported over the past two years. Pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo of Hart Research Associates described the pattern as a direct challenge for the governing party.

“The results indicate a striking reversal of the trend of growing Republican support among Latinos and point to trouble for Republican candidates in the midterm elections.”

Electoral landscape ahead of November

The shifting sentiment arrives one month before elections on 3 November that will decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 Senate seats, and 35 governorships. Negative sentiment toward the Republican Party among Latinos reached 62%, up from 46% in 2024, representing the highest level recorded since 2016. In contrast, 41% view the Democratic Party positively and 42% negatively. Voter engagement remains high, with 72% expressing maximum interest in the upcoming midterms, and 54% indicating their ballot will serve primarily to express opposition to Trump. Republican pollster Micah Roberts evaluated the shift from the 2024 presidential election, when Trump captured 48% of the Latino vote.

“On the basis of these data we can state that 2024 was an exception. Latinos have turned away from the 2024 situation and are ready to make a different choice regarding who will hold control over Congress.”