French court to rule on Marine Le Pen's presidential bid as appeal verdict looms

The verdict today

Marine Le Pen, the 57-year-old figurehead of the French far right, will learn her political fate this afternoon at the Palais de Justice in Paris. Presiding judge Michèle Agui is expected to begin reading the verdict at around 1:30 p.m. local time. The appeal court will decide whether to uphold, reduce, or overturn the five-year ban on holding public office imposed on Le Pen in March 2025 for embezzling European Parliament funds.

Le Pen will not speak immediately after leaving the courtroom. According to three National Rally officials cited by Politico, she will go straight to party headquarters to meet with Jordan Bardella, the party president who is her designated replacement. At 8 p.m., she will give her first post-verdict interview on national television.

The case against Le Pen

On 31 March 2025, a Paris court found Le Pen guilty of misusing EU funds between 2004 and 2016. She was sentenced to a five-year ban from elected office and a suspended prison term. The court ruled that she had either approved or tolerated a system in which party staff were paid as parliamentary assistants while actually working for the National Rally in France. Le Pen called the verdict a "political" move to block her fourth presidential bid.

During the appeal hearing in February 2026, the prosecutor requested a reduced sentence of one year under house arrest with electronic monitoring, but maintained the five-year ineligibility penalty. Le Pen acknowledged that "a mistake was made" but insisted the party acted in good faith. The total amount involved was €2.9 million, according to the original ruling.

Political fallout and Bardella

If the ban is upheld, Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old president of the National Rally, will become the party's candidate for the 18 April 2027 election. Bardella said on Monday that he is "ready to accept the consequences" of the court's decision and that the party has "prepared for every possible scenario."

I want to reaffirm my full support, my absolute friendship and to remind her that I committed myself alongside her in politics.

Le Pen and Bardella held a joint outdoor rally in Liévin, northern France, on Monday to dispel rumours of internal rifts. Le Pen posted on social media: "Together, until victory." The party expected 1,200 supporters, though several seats remained empty.

What the polls say

All polls ahead of the presidential election put the National Rally in first place, with support between 32% and 35% when Le Pen is the candidate. An Ifop survey last month showed that Bardella would win the first round with up to 37%, giving him a lead of more than 15 points over his nearest rival. The centrist bloc led by former prime minister Édouard Philippe trails at 18% to 23%.

Le Pen's defiance

Le Pen has said she will remain politically active regardless of the outcome. "It no longer depends on me," she told an interviewer on Wednesday. "But I will continue to fight and I will continue to be an activist." She also stated earlier this week: "I am not afraid. If I can be a candidate, I will be, as long as I am able to campaign."

It no longer depends on me. But I will continue to fight and I will continue to be an activist.

Analysts consider a full acquittal the least likely scenario. The court could reduce the ban to two years or less, or even lift it entirely, since Le Pen has already been serving the ineligibility since 31 March 2025. A decision to uphold the five-year ban would formally end her presidential ambitions and hand the candidacy to Bardella.