Die Linke overtakes CDU in Berlin election poll, leading for the first time since 2023

Shifting standings

A Berlin-Trend survey by Infratest dimap for RBB, published on Wednesday, shows Die Linke with 20 percent support among Berlin voters, a gain of two percentage points since late April. The Greens follow at 19 percent, the AfD at 18 percent, and the CDU at 17 percent (a loss of two points). The SPD sits at 13 percent, down one point. Both the FDP and BSW would fall short of the five-percent threshold with 3 percent each.

The result marks the first time since the 2023 repeat election that the CDU has lost its leading position in a Berlin poll. In that ballot, the Christian Democrats had captured 28.2 percent of the vote, nearly three times Die Linke's 12.2 percent. A separate Civey poll for the Tagesspiegel in mid-June still had the CDU at 22 percent, illustrating the pace of the slide.

Incumbent troubles

Discontent with the ruling black-red Senate is widespread: 78 percent of respondents told Infratest dimap they were dissatisfied with its work. Mayor Kai Wegner, already under fire for playing tennis during a large-scale power outage that left tens of thousands of Berlin households without electricity and then initially concealing his whereabouts, saw his personal ratings slip. During a CDU state party congress, Wegner faced a surprise challenger; he ultimately received 92.6 percent of delegate votes.

Coalition arithmetic

The current CDU-SPD coalition would fall well short of a majority, according to the survey. Parties would likely have to negotiate a three-way alliance to form a stable Senate after the 20 September vote. Die Linke's lead candidate Elif Eralp, who has never before led her party to first place in a Berlin poll, is aiming for the Red City Hall. The Greens are fielding Werner Graf, and the AfD Kristin Brinker. SPD state chief Steffen Krach saw his party lose ground.