Polls draw the race level

A PoderData/AYA survey conducted between 13 and 15 October, covering 3,000 voters with a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points, puts Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro level at 50% of valid votes ahead of the 25 October run-off. In its 8 October survey, taken days after the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro led 53% to 47%. A reading reported on Tuesday, 13 October, had already narrowed the gap to 51% against 49%.

Datafolha, which the reporting describes as one of Brazil's reference pollsters, now gives Lula 49% and Flávio Bolsonaro 51%, with a margin of error of two points. A week earlier the same institute had Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by four points, at 52% to 48%. Quaest figures are reported inconsistently: RTBF and 7sur7 cite a Quaest poll published on Wednesday showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49%, while Al Jazeera reports a Quaest release on Thursday with Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44%.

First round and the field

In the first round on 4 October, Lula won 45% of the vote and Flávio Bolsonaro won 47%, a result that contradicted polls which had put Lula ahead. Neither candidate secured a majority, which forced the run-off.

Flávio Bolsonaro47%

Lula45%

Flávio Bolsonaro

47 %

Lula

45 %

Data from the article text

Al Jazeera notes that Bolsonaro has benefited less than expected from the elimination of several conservative candidates, although he has gained endorsements from right and centre-right parties. According to La Libre, Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term and is trying to win over about 20% of first-round abstainers.

Workweek cut and handouts

Parliament adopted a constitutional amendment on Wednesday, 14 October, that cuts the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without a pay cut and gives two weekly rest days instead of one. The measure will affect 14 million Brazilians. Lula had pushed the project for months, and it passed ten days before the run-off. Polls show it is highly popular, and Flávio Bolsonaro voted for it despite criticising it repeatedly in the past. Lula credited the shift to social pressure and celebrated the reform in a statement:

“Today is a day to celebrate a historic achievement for millions of workers.”

Lula also announced debt relief for micro-entrepreneurs, a university scholarship fund and a suspension of fuel taxes, and on Thursday he promised free weekend public transport. He had raised social benefits before the first round. Public debt exceeds 80% of GDP, and Insper economist Marco Mendes told AFP that the government shows no budget discipline and that the measures could be read as indirect vote buying.

Campaign push and rallies

After the first round, Lula acknowledged that his campaign had been the most disorganised in decades, so he shifted toward social media, where the right had held an edge, and brought in young influencers. Al Jazeera reports that his rallies have drawn millions of people onto the streets, while 7sur7 describes large demonstrations in several Brazilian cities in recent days.

Court order on Meta

On Thursday, 15 October, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) barred Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, from limiting the reach of political content linked to the run-off campaign without justification. The ruling followed a complaint from Lula, who accused the US company of favouring Flávio Bolsonaro by selectively reducing the circulation of posts favourable to him. The court set daily penalties of 500,000 reais (87,500 euros) if Meta does not comply, and it requires both candidates to receive equal treatment, including through Meta's artificial intelligence tools.

1. Oct 4, 2026First round: Flávio Bolsonaro 47%, Lula 45%
2. Oct 14, 2026Parliament approves constitutional amendment cutting the workweek to 40 hours
3. Oct 15, 2026TSE bars Meta from unjustified limits on political content reach
4. Oct 25, 2026Run-off vote scheduled

What comes next

The run-off is scheduled for 25 October. Eduardo Grin, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told AFP that the election is far from decided, contrary to what many expected after the first round.