In brief
Internal Reform data projects Burnham winning with 45.5% of the vote, a lead of roughly 5 to 8 points over Reform's Kenyon.
Green and Lib Dem voters are switching heavily to Labour, while Restore Britain supporters are more reluctant to back Reform, blunting the right-of-centre challenge.
Reform's candidate has faced sustained criticism over unearthed sexist comments; the party has dismissed them as 'locker room banter'.
If Burnham wins and returns to Westminster, a Labour leadership contest becomes probable, with Wes Streeting already calling for a timetable for Starmer to step down.
The contest
Voters in Makerfield go to the polls on Thursday to fill a vacant Commons seat in a by-election freighted with national consequences. Labour has selected Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, a figure with ministerial experience and strong regional recognition, while Reform UK is running councillor Robert Kenyon. Restore Britain, the breakaway party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, is also fielding candidate Rebecca Shepherd. If Burnham wins, he returns to parliament and can immediately trigger a Labour leadership contest against Keir Starmer, who is attending the G7 summit in France and has said he intends to stay in post.
Candidate controversies
The Reform campaign has been buffeted by the resurfacing of Kenyon’s old social media posts. Comments on a rugby league forum and a now-deleted X account included the claim that women cannot "ref, drive or give directions" and a sexually explicit post directed at TV presenter Carol Vorderman. Reform has dismissed the remarks as "locker room banter", but Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, called Kenyon "Nigel Farage's sexist puppet" and told the Unison conference:
“A choice between Andy Burnham and Nigel Farage's sexist puppet. It is a fight that we must win.”
Tactical dynamics
Electoral arithmetic is being shaped by asymmetrical tactical voting. The Guardian reports that more than half of Green and Liberal Democrat identifiers say they will lend their votes to Burnham in the by-election, while only about a third of Restore Britain supporters say they would switch to Reform. Combined, the Green and Lib Dem share in the constituency at the last general election was 11.5%, a figure well above Burnham’s projected margin. Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester summarised the logic:
“You're not going to get a Green MP in Makerfield, you're not going to get a Lib Dem MP in Makerfield. So it's really obvious what you've got to do.”
Internal projections
Internal data collated by Reform and seen by The Independent gives Burnham a five-point lead, translating to roughly 45.5% of the vote against 41% for Kenyon and 5% for Shepherd. The same source said the margin could widen to eight points, while Reform briefings to other outlets claim a two-point gap. The Reform insider noted that Burnham is drawing out 2024 Labour voters who did not turn out in 2026 and is also attracting Conservative, Green and Lib Dem switchers. Women voters who backed Reform in 2026 are seen as a vulnerability for Kenyon after the sexism allegations.
- Labour (Burnham)
- 45.5 %
- Reform UK (Kenyon)
- 41 %
- Restore Britain (Shepherd)
- 5 %
Data from the article text
Leadership horizon
Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who has also declared an intention to run for the leadership, used a central London speech to urge Starmer to set a departure timetable once Thursday’s result is known.
“I would hope that after Thursday's by-election, when the results are in... the prime minister will at that stage reflect on his own position and set out a timetable.”