Crowley upsets polling-favorite Hong in Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary

Wisconsin primary upset

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, August 11, by approximately half a percentage point. NPR reported the margin at around 4,000 votes out of more than 750,000 cast, while the Washington Post put it at about 3,800 votes out of 792,000 ballots. The Financial Times described Crowley as having overcome a 22-point polling deficit, and the Washington Post noted Hong had led by more than 20 points in polling two weeks earlier. Crowley had briefly suspended his campaign just over a month ago, according to the New York Times.

Polling failures under scrutiny

The Wisconsin result followed a similar polling miss in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary the previous week, where progressive health official Abdul El-Sayed defeated centrist Representative Haley Stevens in a contest that was not called until the following morning. Some polls had shown El-Sayed leading by double digits, yet the race proved far closer than expected. Joshua Clinton, co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll, told the Financial Times that polling primaries is extremely difficult and warned the dynamic could extend to November's general election.

When one candidate is attracting support among the set of people who are most likely to take polls -- college-educated, politically interested and motivated -- it is the perfect storm for a polling miss.

Michael Bailey, a polling expert at Georgetown University, pointed to the problem of online opt-in polling, where respondents are often more politically engaged than the average citizen. With response rates in the low single digits, he said, the people answering are a peculiar group.

They're a wacky group of people, if they're people at all.

Hong's controversial past

Hong, a former chef and restaurateur who served as a state legislator, faced scrutiny over years-old social media posts. She had called for cancelling Thanksgiving, describing it as a celebration of colonialism, and said America was "an abundance of suffering." She also wrote about "defund then abolish" for police and discussed her biracial son giving her "proximity to whiteness." A week before the vote, Hong told media outlets that Thanksgiving was now her favorite holiday. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told ABC News' Jonathan Karl that "Woke 1 was crazy!" when asked about such posts.

Progressive and moderate reactions

The narrow defeat set off competing interpretations within the Democratic Party. Robert Lasica, a spokesman for Madison's Democratic Socialists of America chapter, told the New York Times the race was a significant loss but also a triumph for left infrastructure in the state.

It's a big triumph of how far we can go with building the left infrastructure in Wisconsin that simply did not exist a year ago.

Amanda Litman, president of Run for Something, told NPR that Hong "started polling basically at 0%, had thousands of volunteers and came from behind" but "did crumble a little bit in the final week." Outgoing Democratic Governor Tony Evers had warned that Hong would lose the general election to GOP Congressman Tom Tiffany. Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, who had endorsed El-Sayed in Michigan, pointedly did not endorse Hong in Wisconsin. Crowley is now seen as the favorite in the fall general election against Tiffany.

Other races on primary night

Voters also went to the polls in Minnesota, South Carolina, Connecticut, and Vermont. In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, a result Reuters described as a progressive victory, though Flanagan is not affiliated with the DSA.