NATO's view of its military edge

The top military commander of NATO, US General Alexus Grynkewich, says the alliance is clearly stronger than Russia in conventional terms. In an interview with the German weekly Der Spiegel, published on 16 October 2026, he said NATO's capabilities, as they would be deployed in a large-scale conflict, far exceed those of Moscow. He pointed to Russia's lack of modern F-35 fighter jets and to the far smaller number of modern destroyers and submarines it fields compared with NATO. In a real war, with the entire alliance taking part, NATO would be conventionally superior to Russia, he said. He also described a 'theory of victory' he has presented, which provides for an immediate counterattack if hostile forces enter NATO territory, as a clear signal to Moscow that the alliance can act.

Why he expects no conventional attack

Grynkewich said he is certain Russia would not launch a large-scale conventional attack on Europe. In his account, President Vladimir Putin relies on other methods, such as sabotage, because he has no other options. He added that Putin does not want a direct conflict with the alliance. The reason, he argued, lies partly in NATO's conventional deterrence, which he said must be maintained, with NATO armies modernised, trained intensively and shown to have their capabilities. Deterrence of this kind, in his view, is what keeps a direct confrontation from becoming likely.

Hybrid attacks and the war question

Asked whether NATO and Russia were already at war, Grynkewich called it Putin's dangerous game. He said Moscow wants European populations to believe that supporting Ukraine is dangerous and could lead to war with Russia, and that so far this message is not taking hold. Asked whether the term 'shadow war' fit Russian actions, he said sabotage, arson and terror attacks are precise terms with clear responses. Calling them hybrid attacks, he said, is too vague. He added that clear answers to such acts exist, without describing what those answers would be.

Kaliningrad and the Baltic region

Responding to threats from Moscow that isolating or attacking the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad would trigger a war, Grynkewich repeated that NATO is a defensive alliance that acts only when it is attacked. He concluded that Russia has no reason to worry about Kaliningrad. As a military man, he said, he sees Russia weakened in Kaliningrad by the war in Ukraine, while NATO has grown stronger in the Baltic region. He described the military situation there as unfavourable for Russia. NATO exercises on its eastern flank are routine, he added.