Political escalation ahead of 2027 vote

Prof. Antoni Dudek, a political scientist and historian at the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), stated on TVN24 that Polish President Karol Nawrocki will intensify his political confrontation with Prime Minister Donald Tusk's cabinet over the next twelve months. The presidential administration aims to assist right-wing factions in winning the parliamentary elections scheduled for autumn 2027. Speaking on the program "Tak jest" on 30 September 2026, Dudek explained that Nawrocki will step up institutional resistance to convince voters that ending executive deadlock requires electing a parliamentary majority aligned with the presidential palace.

“Karol Nawrocki will do everything in his power, and even more, so that the right wins the elections next autumn, and that means an increasingly sharper fight against the government on all fronts.”

Push toward a presidential system

According to Dudek, the strategic objective of the head of state is the establishment of a presidential system in Poland. Nawrocki aims to accomplish this structural transformation either through formal constitutional revisions or gradually through individual statutory changes and the installation of a prime minister dependent on the presidency. This electoral strategy focuses directly on persuading undecided voters that institutional stability requires an executive branch fully compatible with the head of state. Nawrocki assumed office on 6 August 2025 for a five-year mandate ending in 2030, ensuring that he will remain in the presidential palace for roughly three years after the 2027 parliamentary elections.

Executive clashes and security appointments

The institutional conflict surfaced directly on 29 September 2026, when the presidential spokesperson announced that Nawrocki had submitted a negative opinion to Tusk regarding the appointment of Colonel Tomasz Jackowicz as Commander of the State Protection Service (SOP). Dudek noted that friction between the presidential palace and the Council of Ministers will escalate across all policy areas, with Nawrocki framing himself as the sole guarantor of state security and effective leadership. In Dudek's analysis, the president will seek to convince voters that security and political calm depend entirely on appointing a prime minister who cooperates directly with him.

Shifting dynamics on the Polish right

Dudek explained that Nawrocki maintained relative restraint earlier in 2026 because his 2025 presidential election victory failed to generate the anticipated polling bounce for Law and Justice (PiS). Instead, the Confederation of the Polish Crown, led by Grzegorz Braun, gained ground following the election, an outcome Nawrocki did not favor given his preference for PiS and the main Confederation alliance. With the ruling coalition holding together, Nawrocki could not push for early parliamentary elections. Dudek suggested that Tusk's government cannot overcome presidential resistance merely through sharper confrontation, arguing that the cabinet must prepare to govern without constantly multiplying legislative bills that face presidential blockage.