Nawrocki to resubmit EU climate referendum request after Commission’s ETS reform, calling it cosmetic

Background: the first referendum attempt

President Karol Nawrocki first asked the Senate to authorise a referendum on EU climate policy on 7 May 2026. The move fulfilled a pledge he made in February 2025, when, as a presidential candidate, he signed an agreement with the NSZZ Solidarność trade union. The proposed question read: “Are you for the implementation of the EU climate policy that has led to an increase in citizens’ living costs, energy prices, and the conduct of business and agricultural activity?” On 21 May the Senate rejected the request by 62 votes to 32. The ruling majority argued a referendum was unnecessary because the government would negotiate solutions in Brussels that served Polish interests.

Decisions taken today will affect our lives for many years. This is especially true of European climate policy, whose negative effects we are already feeling. The Green Deal and ETS mean higher energy prices, a loss of economic competitiveness, and the collapse of agricultural production.

The Commission’s ETS reform

On 17 July 2026 the European Commission published its long-awaited revision of the Emissions Trading System. The proposal slows the pace of CO₂ emission reductions and shifts the end year from 2039 to 2049. Climate minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska welcomed the slower trajectory but said the government would fight for further deceleration. The president’s office, however, dismissed the package as superficial. Paweł Szefernaker, head of the presidential cabinet, wrote that “instead of real change we are dealing only with apparent corrections.” Presidential advisor Wanda Buk noted that the revision contains “a few limited concessions while simultaneously further expanding and tightening the system,” pointing to the inclusion of municipal waste incinerators, ships, and flights.

After earlier assurances from government representatives that they would win a real reform in Brussels, a breakthrough could have been expected. Unfortunately, the published project shows that instead of real change we are dealing only with apparent corrections.

The financial arithmetic

Szefernaker laid out the numbers behind the criticism. The Commission proposes roughly €10 billion in relief from revised benchmarks for all EU industry by 2030. By contrast, Polish companies alone have been receiving about €3 billion in free allowances each year. The cost of phasing out those allowances for the Polish economy is estimated at around €13 billion by 2034. “That means one country will bear greater losses than the value of the relief foreseen for the entire European Union,” he wrote. On the Modernisation Fund, the Commission presents an increase of 280 million allowances to be shared among 12 member states, while Polish enterprises cancel about 150 million allowances annually. Szefernaker called the fund’s expansion “an attempt to cover up multi-billion-euro costs with a gesture.”

A second referendum request

On 18 July Szefernaker announced that President Nawrocki would resubmit the referendum request to the Senate “in the coming week.” He stressed that this time the upper chamber could not hide behind the wording of the question. “We expect it to allow a substantive debate and enable Poles to express their opinion on this matter, which is fundamental for the future of the Polish economy and energy security,” he said. The president’s March 2026 proposals for ETS changes, which he argued could protect Polish and European industry, remain the alternative vision his office is promoting.

This time the Senate will not hide behind the ‘thesis’ in the referendum question. We expect it to allow a substantive debate and enable Poles to express their opinion on this matter, which is fundamental for the future of the Polish economy and energy security.

What happens next

The Senate will again have to decide whether to approve the referendum. The previous vote showed a clear majority against the president’s initiative, and the government’s position has not shifted publicly. Minister Hennig-Kloska’s statement that the cabinet will seek further ETS slowdown suggests the ruling camp prefers to keep the debate inside EU institutions rather than put it to a popular vote. The president’s office, however, is betting that the Commission’s proposal, which it brands as cosmetic, will strengthen its argument that only a direct public mandate can force a real change of course.