Netanyahu's reported push for renewed strikes

Israel's Channel 12 reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged US President Donald Trump in the week of 5 October to renew the conflict with Iran before Israel's general election on 27 October and the US midterm elections on 3 November. The report, which cites officials familiar with the talks, says US officials came away with the impression that Netanyahu wanted an attack before the Israeli vote, and that he again cited what he described as worrying Iranian moves in the nuclear field. Netanyahu's office denies that he is seeking to start a war with Iran before the elections, while critics would see any such move as politically motivated. According to Channel 12, Netanyahu also told the heads of Israel's security services that Trump, not he, first raised resuming hostilities before the elections.

Trump's public line and military readiness

Trump has said publicly that he will not resume attacks on Iran before the US midterms. Anonymous sources cited by Channel 12 nevertheless say the Israel Defense Forces and US Central Command (CENTCOM) are on high alert and are finishing preparations in case Trump changes his mind. A US source in the report says Netanyahu has discussed resuming strikes several times, and that Trump told him he could proceed with preparations without formally committing to approve an attack. That source said Trump could order an attack now, later, or never. Channel 12 adds that Trump's position has changed repeatedly within a few days. A senior Israeli official says Trump at first appeared ready to give the go-ahead before backing away, and IDF chief of staff Eyal Zamir has reportedly warned that renewed fighting before the Israeli election could lead to its postponement.

Trita Parsi on a possible third round

In an interview with Kathimerini, Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, says the US and Israel could start a third round of hostilities with Iran within the next ten days. He argues that Trump wanted calm until the midterms, but that Iran may try to strike first to damage his electoral prospects, pushing Washington toward action. Trump has said in a speech to the Republican National Convention that the war would end right after the elections, because Iran could not endure it much longer. Kathimerini also reports Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia on the weekend of 10 and 11 October that left 12 dead and 309 injured at King Khalid airport in Riyadh.

Iran hardens defences and readies its population

Satellite images cited by the Wall Street Journal show Iran reinforcing sensitive facilities, including nuclear sites and areas near its borders, to make them more resilient to strikes. The government is also preparing the public: paramilitary forces visit kindergartens to read war stories to children, training courses on shoulder-fired portable anti-aircraft missiles are being promoted, and pro-regime rallies are being organized. Bloomberg reports that Iran has kept missile and drone production going despite US and Israeli bombing, and a Western official cited in the same reporting says Tehran has sufficient stocks of ballistic missiles and some anti-ship weapons and can produce more quickly. The WSJ says Iran has limited ability to defend against advanced US fighters, high-altitude bombers or cruise missiles, which gives it an incentive to deter such attacks through threats. The paper adds that the war rhetoric also distracts from Iranians' deepening economic hardship as US sanctions tighten and airlines face pressure to stop flying to Iran.

Threats to the Gulf and beyond

Iranian officials have warned publicly and privately that Tehran would widen its response across the Middle East if US strikes resume. The WSJ says some officials have left open the possibility of ground incursions into neighbouring countries, citing people familiar with the warnings. Iran has also reportedly warned Arab officials that it could hit targets, including Saudi oil facilities, if the conflict flares again. On Sunday, 11 October, Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top national security official, said Tehran could target the United Arab Emirates, as well as data centers and internet cables across the region. According to the WSJ, the UAE has largely avoided attacks since late spring. Sanam Vakil, Middle East program director at Chatham House, argues that military readiness serves the regime for now because it faces deadlock on diplomatic, economic and political fronts, and that a new war could help the Islamic Republic escape that impasse.

What comes next

Israel's general election is set for 27 October, followed by the US midterms on 3 November. Trump has said he will not resume strikes before the midterms, while the IDF and CENTCOM are reportedly finishing plans in case he changes course. Netanyahu's office maintains that he is not seeking a war with Iran before the Israeli vote. The timeline below places the reported contacts and threats alongside these scheduled votes.