Trump demands Saudi Arabia recognize Israel to activate nuclear deal, sparking arms race fears in Middle East
The White House says the signed agreement will be canceled unless Riyadh normalizes ties with Israel, while Israeli opposition figures warn of a regional nuclear arms race.
The deal and Trump's condition
On 22 July 2026, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement that would give Riyadh access to American nuclear technology and, according to several reports, the potential to enrich uranium on its own soil. The text has not been made public, but the US Energy Department described it as a "peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement" providing "broad access for American companies to Saudi Arabia's nuclear energy program." A separate bilateral safeguards agreement was also signed, which the department said lays "the legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar cooperation."
Less than 24 hours later, President Donald Trump added a new condition. In a Truth Social post on 23 July, he wrote that the deal "will be approved, but is fully subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords." He also stated flatly: "There will be no material enrichment!" White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt went further at a briefing the same day, saying the signed agreement "will be canceled" unless Riyadh normalizes diplomatic relations with Israel. She did not explain why the condition was not included before the signing, nor whether Israeli pressure played a role, saying only that the president "is always the ultimate negotiator" and that the idea was one he "has had for a long time."
- Saudi leader visits Washington, laying groundwork for energy cooperation
- US and Saudi Arabia sign civil nuclear cooperation agreement
- Trump posts on Truth Social that the deal is conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords
- White House Press Secretary warns the signed deal 'will be canceled' without normalization with Israel
Saudi silence and past demands
Saudi Arabia has not yet reacted to Trump's announcement. The kingdom has repeatedly stated in the past that it will not recognize Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state and an Israeli withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territories. The Abraham Accords, brokered during Trump's first term, have so far led five countries, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Kazakhstan, to normalize ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia, the most influential Arab state, has held out, making its participation the biggest prize in the normalization process.
Israel divided: welcome and warnings
Israel's official response was swift and positive. The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on X that Saudi Arabia joining the accords "would constitute a historic leap forward for peace in the Middle East." Economy Minister Nir Barkat had earlier said Israel "can handle it" if the kingdom acquires peaceful nuclear energy. Israel itself is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, though it neither confirms nor denies this.
Opposition figures, however, condemned the underlying nuclear deal. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is challenging Netanyahu in the 27 October election, called it "a serious strategic failure that endangers our security" and warned that "uranium enrichment on Saudi soil could lead to a regional nuclear race and a dangerous loss of control." Former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said "the civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia will end in nuclear weapons and lead to a crazy arms race throughout the Middle East." Both urged Israel to pressure the US Congress to block the agreement.
The nuclear deal being formed with Saudi Arabia, bypassing Israel, is a serious strategic failure that endangers our security. Uranium enrichment on Saudi soil could lead to a regional nuclear race and a dangerous loss of control.
A victory for MBS amid regional turmoil
The agreement is a personal triumph for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has pursued such a deal for more than five years. It signals that the Saudi leadership still views the US alliance as vital, despite tensions from the ongoing US-Iran war. The deal was announced as American forces bombed Iran for a 12th consecutive night and Yemen's Houthis attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, reportedly closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait to Saudi shipping.
Karen Young, a political economist at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said the deal offers Saudi Arabia a moment of "power projection, literally, both political power and electricity generation." Building reactors takes over a decade, tying the kingdom to American technology for decades and strengthening both security and commercial bonds.
It's a moment of power projection, literally, both political power and electricity generation.
Non-proliferation concerns
The agreement omits the IAEA Additional Protocol, which would give the UN agency broad oversight of Saudi nuclear activities. According to Reuters, it also lacks the so-called "gold standard" commitment to forgo domestic uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel, two potential pathways to a bomb. Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official who advised both Republican and Democratic administrations on non-proliferation, said the deal could revitalize the US nuclear industry and deter Russia and China from taking a strategic role, but acknowledged the risks.
The deal could help revitalize the US nuclear industry, strengthen US-Saudi ties, and deter Russia and China from taking a strategically important role in Saudi Arabia's nuclear program.
Saudi Arabia, which currently has no nuclear plants, is an IAEA member state. The agreement is expected to last 30 years and be worth tens of billions of dollars. It must still be approved by the US Congress, where opposition is already mobilizing.
