Sikorski warns of Russian false-flag drone attack ahead of NATO summit, urges allies to stay united
Poland's foreign minister told CNN that Russia may stage a false-flag operation using drones to fabricate a pretext for escalation, while reaffirming Warsaw's trust in US security guarantees on the eve of the NATO summit in Ankara.
A false-flag scenario
Speaking to CNN's Jim Sciutto on the eve of the NATO summit in Ankara, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski laid out what he called a plausible Russian provocation: a false-flag operation using drones, possibly Ukrainian ones, followed by a fabricated claim that Poland had attacked first. "To, do czego są zdolni, to jakiegoś rodzaju prowokacja z użyciem fałszywej flagi i dronów, być może ukraińskich dronów, i następnie udawanie, że odpowiadają na nasz fałszywy, nieistniejący atak," he said. He stressed that Russia lacks the conventional strength for a frontal assault on NATO, but that such a hybrid gambit is within its reach.
Sikorski drew a direct parallel to the weeks before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when US intelligence preemptively exposed Russian plans to stage a false-flag incident as a casus belli. That disclosure, he argued, deterred Moscow from executing the scheme. "Mam więc nadzieję, że te ostrzeżenia oznaczają, że Putin nie naciśnie guzika prowokacji," he added, framing the current warnings as a deliberate effort to repeat that deterrent effect.
They play these games, we have to be ready for them. We have to tell them, and that's exactly what we're doing, that we know they lead to nothing good.
Trust in Washington despite troop cuts
Sikorski was unequivocal when asked whether Poland shares the doubts voiced elsewhere in Europe about the reliability of US security guarantees. "Tak, mamy zaufanie," he replied, noting that American troops are already on Polish soil and that Warsaw is requesting a second permanent US base, following the missile defence installation at Redzikowo. He acknowledged, however, that further reductions of the US military footprint in Europe are "clearly coming," describing the emerging division of labour in which European allies build up conventional capabilities while the United States acts as "kawalerii zza wzgórza", cavalry over the hill.
On the eve of a summit where President Trump's public criticism of allied leaders has raised questions about alliance cohesion, Sikorski downplayed the friction. "Można się kłócić o poziomy wydatków i wciąż być dobrymi sojusznikami," he said. He argued that NATO is stronger now than before Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine, pointing to the accession of Finland and Sweden and a jump in European defence spending, partly driven by Trump's pressure.
If someone really thinks they trust the US less, then they should spend more on defence, don't you think?
Italian solidarity and the Kremlin's retort
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, speaking to Sky Tg24, called the recent Russian threats against NATO and Poland "provocations aimed at intimidating others" and pledged to reaffirm Italy's solidarity with Warsaw at the E5 foreign ministers' meeting in Ankara. His comments came after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that "Warsaw should think carefully about its security" and claimed that drone factories in Poland are being used to attack Russian soldiers, with the Russian defence ministry publishing their addresses.
Peskov dismissed Western media reports of a planned Russian provocation as "scare stories." Sikorski, however, noted that Moscow issued identical denials before the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "Jeśli przedstawiciele władzy rosyjskiej mówią, że tego nie będzie, to mogą kłamać, ale też mogli odstąpić od zamiarów w świetle naszych ostrzeżeń," he said.
Nobody is intimidated by the statements of some Kremlin representative. Poland has our full solidarity.
- Kremlin spokesman Peskov warns Poland to 'think carefully about its security' and claims drone factories there target Russian soldiers.
- Sikorski gives CNN interview warning of possible Russian false-flag drone provocation; Italian FM Tajani expresses solidarity with Poland.
- NATO foreign ministers' summit opens in Ankara, with E5 meeting where Tajani plans to reaffirm support for Poland.
The summit backdrop
The NATO foreign ministers' gathering in Ankara opens against a backdrop of heightened alert over hybrid threats on the alliance's eastern flank. Sikorski's interview, combined with Tajani's pledge of solidarity, signals an effort to project unity even as allies navigate disputes over burden-sharing and the pace of US force realignment. The Polish minister's explicit call for a second permanent American base underscores Warsaw's determination to anchor US forces on its territory as a long-term deterrent, even while preparing for a future in which Europe carries more of the conventional load.
