Poland’s fuel cap and VAT cut end Tuesday; analysts see 40–60 groszy hike from July 1
The three‑month CPN package of maximum prices and reduced VAT on motor fuels expires on June 30. From Wednesday, drivers face a jump of 40–60 groszy per litre as the 8% VAT rate returns to 23%, pushing Pb95 towards 6.50 PLN.
Final day of controlled prices
On Tuesday, June 30, the maximum price for Pb95 petrol is set at 6.00 PLN per litre, Pb98 at 6.68 PLN, and diesel at 6.19 PLN. Petrol is slightly cheaper than Monday’s caps of 6.02 PLN and 6.70 PLN respectively, while diesel is 2 groszy higher than the previous day’s 6.17 PLN. These are the last hours in which the government will dictate fuel prices under the “Ceny Paliw Niżej” (Lower Fuel Prices) package introduced at the end of March.
The road to price controls
The CPN measures were a response to a spike in global oil prices after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February. In the week before the package, average pump prices had soared: Pb95 reached 7.16 PLN per litre, up from 5.73 PLN a month earlier, while diesel hit 8.75 PLN. On March 31, the first day of the scheme, the government slashed VAT on motor fuels from 23% to 8%, lowered excise duty by 29 groszy per litre for petrol and 28 groszy for diesel, and empowered the Energy Minister to set daily maximum retail prices.
- CPN package starts: VAT cut to 8%, excise cuts, and maximum prices introduced.
- Reduced excise duties expire.
- Last day of reduced VAT and maximum price controls.
- VAT returns to 23%, price caps lifted.
The excise reductions expired on June 15. The VAT cut was extended to June 30, deferring the full return to the standard 23% rate. Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka noted last week that declines in global crude markets “point to cautious optimism” but left the decision on extending the package to the Ministry of Finance.
This is a decision of the Ministry of Finance. However, the declines we are observing in the markets point to cautious optimism.
Next week’s price shock
With the VAT reduction lapsing, analysts from BM Reflex estimate that retail fuel prices will jump by 40–60 groszy per litre from July 1, even if station owners absorb some costs by cutting margins. Their base forecast sees Pb95 at around 6.50 PLN, Pb98 at 7.35 PLN, and diesel at 6.70 PLN, while autogas could reach 3.29 PLN.
In such a scenario, an increase in retail prices will be practically unavoidable, even if station owners gave up their own margin. Therefore, if the change takes place on July 1, petrol and diesel will rise by about 40–60 groszy per litre.
- Pb95
- 50 groszy
- Pb98
- 67 groszy
- Diesel
- 51 groszy
For drivers, the end of the CPN means a return to market‑driven pricing, where pump rates will again be shaped by wholesale fuel costs, the zloty’s exchange rate, station operating expenses, and retailer margins. Although global crude prices have eased since a tentative framework agreement between Iran and the US, with Brent trading around $73 per barrel and WTI below $70, the expected tax shift is too large to be offset by further oil declines. Zywert told money.pl that crude would need to fall to $60–63 per barrel to compensate, a scenario he described as “unlikely given the 60‑day agreement and ongoing disputes over shipping control in the Strait of Hormuz.”
At the moment, when we are talking about a 60‑day agreement, where there are still disagreements over control of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely.
