In the September 2026 IBRiS poll, KO achieved 30.9%, but a seat simulation based on Research Partner data gave the governing bloc only 216 seats, 15 short of a majority.
PiS polled at 17.3% in the IBRiS survey, just 2.0 percentage points ahead of Konfederacja at 15.3% led by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak.
Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus recorded 6.4% in IBRiS and 4.1% in Research Partner, while Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej reached 10.0%.
In the IBRiS study, PSL scored 4.4%, Partia Razem stood at 3.1%, and Polska 2050 dropped to 0.2%.
Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) leads Polish voting preferences in two national surveys released on 23 September 2026, though both indicate that the governing alliance lacks the numbers to form a parliamentary majority. An IBRiS poll conducted on 18-19 September for Rzeczpospolita with 1,070 respondents placed KO at 30.9%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from August. A separate Research Partner survey of 1,040 adults carried out between 18 and 21 September recorded KO at 28.8%, down 2.7 percentage points from June. A Sejm seat simulation by Dr Maciej Onasz of the University of Łódź allocates 190 seats to KO and 26 to Lewica, leaving the current ruling coalition at 216 seats, which is 15 seats below the 231-seat threshold required for a governing majority. In contrast, opposition forces would control 244 seats in the 460-seat lower house under that model.
Data from the article text
Support for Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) has decreased across both studies following the launch of Rozwój Plus, a separate political entity formed by former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki. In the IBRiS survey, PiS dropped 0.8 percentage points to 17.3%, leaving it only 2.0 percentage points ahead of Konfederacja, led by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak, which gained 2.1 percentage points to reach 15.3%. The Research Partner poll recorded PiS at 19.2% (a drop of 6.1 percentage points) and Konfederacja at 11.2%. Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus registered 6.4% in the IBRiS poll and 4.1% in the Research Partner poll. Meanwhile, Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej achieved 10.0% in IBRiS (up 1.2 percentage points) and 8.8% in Research Partner (up 2.1 percentage points).
Data from the article text
The polling data shows significant declines for smaller coalition and left-wing factions. In the IBRiS study, the Polish People's Party (PSL) fell below the 5% electoral threshold with 4.4%, while Partia Razem took 3.1% and Polska 2050 registered 0.2%. Lewica secured 7.7%, representing a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month. The Research Partner study placed Nowa Lewica at 6.8% (down 2.1 percentage points), Partia Razem at 4.2%, and both PSL and groups originating from Polska 2050 at 1.9% each. Declared voter turnout reached 58.9% in the IBRiS poll, while 73.3% of participants in the Research Partner poll declared an intention to vote.
University experts noted that the division of right-wing and centre-left lists will determine the outcome of the next parliamentary distribution. Jagiellonian University political scientist Prof. Jarosław Flis pointed out that the current governing camp faces losing its majority unless it consolidates lists before the election. Flis outlined a scenario in which the ruling coalition runs on three joint lists, uniting Nowa Lewica with Razem and PSL with Polska 2050, which could yield 231 seats if all three clear the electoral threshold. Flis evaluated the political landscape following the release of the figures.
“The survey shows that the October 15 coalition is saying goodbye to power. Unless it reached an agreement with Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus, which is hard to believe, or went into the elections on three lists, meaning the left went together, and the Third Way reactivated and crossed the threshold. Tusk's coalition can only be saved by consolidation. Right-wing parties can take power.”
Flis also noted that right-wing factions aligned around Karol Nawrocki will depend on cooperation to secure governance if current voting patterns hold.
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Surveys conducted in September 2026 show Donald Tusk's governing alliance falling short of a parliamentary majority as support for Law and Justice fragments and right-wing competitors gain ground.
AI text based on reports by Wprost, www.gazetaprawna.pl, naTemat.pl and other publishers. Changed .