July earnings and employment figures

Average gross wages in Poland's enterprise sector rose by 6.8% year-on-year in July 2026 to reach 9,509.02 PLN, according to data released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The monthly reading surpassed the market consensus forecast of 6.2% and accelerated from the 5.9% annual pace recorded in June. In monthly nominal terms, average gross remuneration increased by 1.1% compared to June, exceeding analyst forecasts of a 0.7% rise. Employment across enterprises with more than nine workers fell by 0.8% year-on-year to 6.4 million positions, which was slightly better than the 0.9% drop projected by economists. On a month-on-month basis, corporate employment added 4,000 jobs, marking an increase of 0.1% and the first monthly gain since November 2025.

Drivers across specific industries

The July wage acceleration was concentrated in a small number of sectors that distributed seasonal and one-off payments. Remuneration in agriculture and forestry rose by 26.2% year-on-year after a 50.7% monthly jump, lifted by annual Forester's Day bonuses. Mining wages climbed 21.9% year-on-year, compared to 2.4% in the previous month, while the energy sector recorded a 13.4% annual wage gain. GUS noted that quarterly, annual, and discretionary bonuses, along with jubilee awards and retirement severance payouts, elevated the monthly figures. In contrast, wage growth slowed slightly in manufacturing, real estate services, and scientific activities.

“The surprise is the effect of an accumulation of several factors: bonuses in mining, energy, forestry, and a low base from last year.”

Agriculture and forestry26.2%

Mining21.9%

Energy13.4%

Enterprise sector average6.8%

Agriculture and forestry

26.2 %

Mining

21.9 %

Energy

13.4 %

Enterprise sector average

6.8 %

Data from the article text

Monetary policy and interest rate outlook

Adjusted for July annual inflation of 3.0%, real wages grew by 3.7% year-on-year, representing the strongest purchasing power increase since February 2026. The unexpected wage strength has altered market expectations regarding the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) ahead of its rate-setting meeting on 8-9 September. National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński previously suggested in early July that he could propose an interest rate cut in September if economic conditions stabilized. Between May 2025 and March 2026, the RPP reduced the reference rate by a cumulative 2.00 percentage points to 3.75%. Economists at Bank Millennium stated that the labor market does not require monetary easing, projecting that rates will stay unchanged through the end of 2026 before two 25-basis-point reductions in 2027.

“These data, together with the rise in consumer inflation expectations in August and signs of improving foreign demand flowing from industry, give the Monetary Policy Council the comfort of keeping interest rates unchanged.”

Broader macroeconomic performance

The labor statistics arrived alongside broader economic data indicating stronger output across Poland. In a flash estimate, GUS reported that real gross domestic product grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.3% in the same period of 2025 and matching market consensus. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP expanded by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, with regular second-quarter revisions scheduled for 31 August 2026. Industrial production also advanced by 5.1% at the start of the second half of the year. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański stated that strong wage gains support ongoing plans to reform personal income tax rules.

2026-04

5.4 %

2026-06

5.9 %

2026-07

6.8 %

Data from the article text