Putin addresses the Valdai Club

At the plenary session of the 23rd Valdai International Discussion Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that large European nations have adopted an aggressive stance toward Moscow, while claiming that the United States is attempting to end the war. Putin asserted that European political leaders are using external tensions to distract their populations from deteriorating domestic economic and social conditions. He maintained that Moscow has no aggressive designs against European states, while referencing advanced Russian weapons systems that other countries do not possess.

“We are not threatening anyone and have no intention of attacking anyone, neither in 2029, nor in 2030, nor in 2050. However, if we face aggression, we will be forced to respond.”

Putin also stated that Russia sets no preconditions for restoring relations with individual European countries, arguing that the European Union will face internal economic collapse due to its own political decisions.

European warnings on sabotage and hybrid operations

European officials presented a contrasting assessment, pointing to a series of physical and digital disruptions across the continent. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned during the 2026 Westphalian Peace Prize ceremony that Germany is preparing for severe hybrid operations, following an attempted drone attack at Leipzig-Halle Airport in August. Merz reiterated Germany's commitment to supporting Ukraine despite domestic political pressure following regional election victories by the Alternative for Germany party.

“We do not want to humiliate the Russian people or destabilize the Russian state. But Russia must end the war and refrain from hybrid attacks on Europe.”

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called on European allies to classify such actions directly as state-sponsored sabotage and terrorism rather than hybrid incidents. Tsahkna pointed to an August arson attack on a Tallinn facility operated by defense contractor Milrem Robotics, for which three Latvian citizens were detained and transferred to Estonian custody. He warned that financial incentives, rather than ideological alignment, motivate Russian-recruited operatives across the European Union.

“The message is that if you collaborate with Russian intelligence, you will be caught and sent to prison.”

Rising military spending and intelligence alerts

The escalating rhetoric coincides with sharp increases in Russian defense allocations more than 1,600 days into the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow plans to raise military spending by 27% in 2027, bringing the defense budget to €183 billion, an amount exceeding 7% of Russian gross domestic product and representing roughly 35% of total Kremlin expenditures. At the United Nations General Assembly, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that Moscow is preparing a large action this year, following earlier alerts by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte regarding potential Russian aggression within five years. In late August, Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow to directly warn Russian officials against provoking an open confrontation with NATO.

Ukraine faces winter energy attacks and a financing deficit

Inside Ukraine, Russian drone and missile strikes have targeted power plants, railways, and industrial sites ahead of winter. Ukrainian Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi announced that Kyiv faces a $27 billion defense funding gap for the current year. The Ukrainian government plans to cover approximately $7 billion through internal tax measures and domestic resources, relying on international partners to supply the remaining funds.

“Since summer, there has practically not been a single day when the enemy did not attack energy infrastructure. But an attack of such scale and intensity has not occurred since the end of the last heating season.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky repeated requests for additional air defense interceptors, stating that Russian forces are expanding the use of jet-powered drones against civilian and electrical infrastructure across the country.

Total defense funding gap27

Targeted internal revenue7

Total defense funding gap

27 $ billion

Targeted internal revenue

7 $ billion

Data from the article text