Two submarine-launched cruise missiles

North Korea said its military fired two types of strategic cruise missiles from the country's eastern waters on Wednesday, 14 October. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the launches assessed the readiness of underwater combat systems, trained the navy and demonstrated the reliability of the nuclear deterrent. KCNA did not say which platform fired the missiles. South Korea's military detected the launches and assessed that they came from a submarine, with one missile fired from a vertical launcher and the other from a torpedo tube. Seoul has not said which vessel it believes was used.

The submarine in question

KCNA's photos point to the Hero Kim Kun Ok, a submarine that Pyongyang unveiled in September 2023 with claims that it could fire tactical nuclear weapons from underwater. State media photos from that unveiling showed at least 10 missile launch tubes in addition to its torpedo tubes, but many foreign experts doubted it would perform as described and thought it was likely a modified, ageing diesel-powered boat. Before Wednesday, all North Korean underwater launches had come from a 2,000-ton-class submarine with a single launch tube, which many experts treat as a test platform rather than an operational vessel. If the Hero Kim Kun Ok is confirmed, these would be its first publicly recorded weapons launches, and the tests are the first underwater-launched missile tests in nearly three years. Analyst Shin Jong-woo of South Korea's Defence and Security Forum said the tests indicated North Korea had resolved technical problems, including the boat's ability to right itself, and he expects ballistic missile tests from the submarine before the navy deploys it.

A run of recent tests

The latest launches follow a series of tests in recent weeks. Pyongyang announced a hypersonic intermediate-range missile test on 3 October, saying the weapon flew 350 km (217 miles) before striking its target, and The Independent counts hypersonic tests on 20 September and 3 October. On Monday, 12 October, North Korea said it had fired a tactical ballistic missile, while Japan and South Korea reported several projectiles flying about 900 km toward the Sea of Japan from the area around Pyongyang. In early September, the country commissioned its second modern destroyer, the Kang Kon. KCNA also reported on Tuesday, 13 October that Kim Jong Un had visited a newly opened defence industry museum displaying the Hwasong 20 intercontinental ballistic missile. Photos from the museum showed Kim's daughter, whom South Korea's spy agency NIS regards as a potential political successor, and Yonhap reported that the Hwasong 20 is thought could reach the US mainland.

Diplomacy frozen, arms build-up continues

Kim has halted all diplomacy and cooperation with South Korea, which he describes as a permanent enemy. Talks with Washington have been stalled for years, and Kim has so far rebuffed calls from US President Donald Trump to revive diplomacy that broke down in 2019. Pyongyang wants Washington to abandon what it calls a hostile policy and to drop its demands for denuclearisation. Irish Examiner reports that the weapons demonstrations appear aimed at pressing the United States for greater concessions if it wants diplomacy to resume. Questions remain, according to The Independent, about whether a heavily sanctioned and impoverished country has the resources and technology to build such submarines, although launches from a stealthy boat would be hard to detect in advance.

Hypersonic race on the peninsula

Hypersonic missiles travel at least five times the speed of sound (Mach 5), or more than 6,100 km/h, and can change course in flight, which makes them harder to intercept. South Korea has also tested its first domestically developed hypersonic missile, a test launch that President Lee Jae-myung observed. Chris Green, a Korea Peninsula analyst at Crisis Group International, said:

“There has been an arms race on the Korean Peninsula for many years and hypersonic weapons are just the latest manifestation of that.”

Green said hypersonic weapons have become a priority for Seoul as the North has expanded its capabilities and deepened military and economic ties with Russia.