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Today’s Brief

Ceuta burns Brussels' patience

Ceuta strains Europe as Russia pounds Kyiv and Danube idles Hungary's reactor

Europe woke to border panic, heat alerts and a power squeeze, while war and political risk kept moving faster than institutions. The common thread is capacity: states can still react quickly, but their buffers look thin.

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Other · Updated 17m ago

Demography and migration

The new findings provide updated figures on irregular entries and returns in Ceuta, and clarify that new arrivals will not gain automatic rights to travel freely in the rest of the EU, confirming existing policy rather than introducing new measures.

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© Do Rzeczy
Conflicts·Jul 15

Poland and Sweden intercept Russian Su-30SM2 jets over Baltic in second day of air incidents

Over two days, Polish and Swedish fighters intercepted Russian military aircraft near Poland’s maritime border, with the defence minister calling it aggressive observation of air defence exercises and a sign of Moscow’s continuing hybrid warfare.

Two-day pattern of airspace probing

On 14 July, a Polish quick-reaction pair intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft approximately 30 kilometres from Ustka over international waters. After radio contact and signals to leave the area, the aircraft departed towards Russia. Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, speaking at a press conference after a meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security, described it as the first such approach in a long time.

This is the first Russian attempt in a long time to get close to our maritime border in order to reconnoitre our air defence systems. Russia is constantly waging hybrid warfare, conducting reconnaissance, and is hostile towards all NATO countries.

— Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz

15 July interception details

On Wednesday, the Polish duty pair from Malbork intercepted a pair of Su-30SM2 multirole fighters that had taken off from Kaliningrad. The minister posted on X that the Russian jets were once again conducting aggressive observation of Polish exercises to integrate air defence systems. He stressed that the Russian aircraft did not approach Polish airspace. A pair of Swedish fighters operating over the Baltic escorted the intercepted Russian aircraft, adding a multilateral dimension to the response.

The Russians once again conducted aggressive observation over the Baltic of our air defence system integration exercises. Therefore, the duty pair of our aircraft from Malbork was scrambled, which intercepted a pair of Su-30SM2 from Kaliningrad. The Russian aircraft did not approach Polish airspace. Additionally, a pair of Swedish fighters operated over the Baltic, escorting the intercepted Russian aircraft.

— Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz

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The Il-20 incident on 14 July

The previous day’s interception of the Il-20 electronic reconnaissance aircraft took place after noon, about 30 km off the coast near Ustka. The Polish duty pair intercepted the Russian aircraft over international waters. After the interception, the Russian plane departed towards Russia. Kosiniak-Kamysz used the incident to warn against equating the aggressor with the victim in the Russia-Ukraine war, stating that those who try to change attitudes towards helping the defending side should reconsider, given what is happening.

Two-day interception timeline
  1. Jul 14, 2026Polish fighter pair intercepts Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft 30 km from Ustka; aircraft departs towards Russia.
  2. Jul 15, 2026Polish pair from Malbork intercepts Russian Su-30SM2 pair over Baltic; Swedish fighters escort intercepted aircraft.

Broader context of hybrid warfare

The minister linked the repeated interceptions to Russia’s broader strategy of hybrid warfare against NATO countries. He noted that Russia is hostile to all alliance members and continues reconnaissance operations. The operations were conducted as part of Poland’s Baltic Centry activities and exercise "Zatoka" (Bay), which are coordinated to protect critical infrastructure, monitor the situation on the Baltic, and counter potential threats, according to the Operational Command of the Armed Forces Branches.

Ustka · Malbork · Kaliningrad
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
Władysław Kosiniak-KamyszKaliningradUstkaMalbork

5 sources

  • Rosyjskie samoloty przechwycone nad Bałtykiem - Radio Gdańsk
    radiogdansk.pl·Jul 15
  • Polskie samoloty przechwyciły rosyjskie nad Bałtykiem. "Agresywna obserwacja"
    Do Rzeczy·Jul 15
  • Nadleciały z Królewca. Polskie myśliwce przechwyciły rosyjskie samoloty
    wnp.pl·Jul 15
  • Kolejny incydent nad Bałtykiem. "Poderwana para naszych samolotów"
    FAKT24.pl·Jul 15
  • Kolejna rosyjska prowokacja. Polskie siły przechwyciły parę Su-30SM2
    rmf24.pl·Jul 15

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