In brief
The PNV and Junts are primarily motivated by a desire to avoid a 'super Sunday' in 2027 where general and local elections would coincide, diluting their regional influence.
Both parties reject a formal no-confidence motion against Sánchez because it would require the support of the far-right Vox, a toxic alliance for their bases.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP is waiting for the government's allies to request a motion, viewing the PNV's threats as a bluff and fearing a political trap.
The PNV sees a question of confidence initiated by Sánchez as the ideal mechanism to let the government fall without directly collaborating with the PP and Vox.
The judicial investigation into former PM Zapatero has intensified the pressure on Sánchez, with Junts and the PNV feeling 'dragged down' by the government's instability.
A Calculated Squeeze, Not a Coup
Spain's minority government is facing its most serious internal pressure in months, but key parliamentary allies are stopping short of delivering a fatal blow. The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the Catalan pro-independence Junts are publicly tightening the screws on Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, yet privately their calculations are dominated by electoral strategy rather than an immediate desire to topple the executive. The catalyst for this renewed tension is the judicial investigation into former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, but the underlying driver is a shared fear of a 'super Sunday' in 2027, where general elections would coincide with local and regional ballots.
“It would be irresponsible to continue beyond 2026, without direction, without budgets, without a stable majority and with an uncontrolled and judicialized agenda.”
The Super Sunday Nightmare
For both the PNV and Junts, the prospect of a simultaneous national and local election is an existential threat. Party leaders fear that a national campaign dominated by the ideological clash between the PP and PSOE would drown out regional debates on self-government and local management, the very terrain where nationalist parties thrive. The PNV's president, Aitor Esteban, has explicitly warned that general elections should not be delayed beyond 2026 to avoid this clash. Internally, the PNV is concerned that a nationalized campaign would reactivate the constitutionalist vote in the Basque Country and fuel competition with the left-wing pro-independence EH Bildu.
“If the PNV truly believes that prolonging this situation is irresponsible, the PNV must accept that continuing to sustain this situation is also irresponsible. Words alone are not enough.”
The Poison of a Right-Wing Alliance
The most significant barrier to a formal no-confidence motion is the political cost of the required arithmetic. To oust Sánchez, the center-right Partido Popular (PP) would need the votes of the PNV and Junts, but also the support of the far-right Vox. For Junts, any pact that facilitates a PP government backed by Vox would trigger a total offensive from the rest of the Catalan independence movement. Parties like ERC, the CUP, and Aliança Catalana are already preparing a narrative that Junts has abandoned confrontation to become a pragmatic right-wing force willing to deal with Madrid. The PNV shares this allergy to Vox, with its parliamentary spokesperson stating clearly that not being with Sánchez does not mean supporting PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
The PP Waits for the Call
The PP, led by Feijóo, is adopting a strategy of passive pressure. Party leadership views the PNV's recent warnings as "empty contortions" and a bluff, recalling that eight years ago Esteban withdrew support for Mariano Rajoy's budget only to let the government fall a week later. Despite having a draft of an instrumental no-confidence motion ready in a drawer at the party's headquarters on Génova Street, the PP is refusing to make the first move. The party's calculation is that it still lacks four votes to succeed, and Feijóo fears handing Sánchez a political victory. Instead, the PP is demanding that the government's allies take responsibility for their discontent.
“Not being with Sánchez does not in any way mean supporting Feijóo.”
A Question of Confidence as an Escape Route
With a no-confidence motion seen as too toxic, the PNV's ideal scenario is a question of confidence initiated by Sánchez himself. In such a vote, the Basque nationalists would be willing to let the prime minister fall without suffering the collateral damage of being seen to actively conspire with the Spanish right. This preference is shared in private conversations with Junts, with whom the PNV has intensified contacts to unify a position aimed at cornering Sánchez. Both parties feel strong enough to force the end of the legislature, but they are also bound by pending negotiations: Junts is still waiting for the promised return of Carles Puigdemont and the full transfer of immigration powers, while the PNV wants to complete the transfer of other competencies, including Social Security, which is on the launchpad.