The political foundations of Pedro Sánchez's minority government are fracturing as two indispensable parliamentary allies, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the Catalan separatist party Junts (JxCat), have openly called for early general elections. Both parties argue that the legislature is effectively finished due to a cascade of judicial and police investigations into alleged influence-peddling and corruption within the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE).

Allies break publicly with the government

Miriam Nogueras, the spokesperson for Junts in the Congress of Deputies, stated bluntly that her party expects nothing less than for Sánchez to dissolve parliament and call elections. She noted that Junts had already torn up its governing agreement with the Socialists months ago and welcomed the fact that more parties are now joining their call.

“We don't expect anything other than for President Sánchez to call elections.”

The PNV has echoed this sentiment throughout the week, with party leader Aitor Esteban asserting that the legislature has reached its end and urging a national vote this year. Reports suggest the two parties coordinated this public stance during a secret meeting in Zaragoza, deciding to publicly cut ties with the government, which could translate into blocking all future executive proposals in Congress.

The no-confidence conundrum

Despite their harsh rhetoric, both Junts and the PNV have categorically ruled out supporting a no-confidence motion led by the conservative People's Party (PP). Their primary objection is that such a motion would necessarily involve the far-right Vox party, with whom the PP has negotiated regional governments. Nogueras described Vox as a "red line" for her party, insisting that Junts is not in Madrid to "put in or take out Spanish governments."

“We are not here to put in and take out Spanish governments.”

This position has drawn criticism from the PP, which accuses the separatists of hypocritically sustaining what they call the most corrupt government in history. Within the PP, a debate is raging over whether to table a no-confidence motion even without guaranteed votes. Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has hinted at using all possible means to change the government, while former Prime Minister José María Aznar has been more direct, calling the climate of corruption "unbearable" and demanding a new government.

Sánchez vows to stay until 2027

Despite the mounting pressure, Sánchez has reiterated his intention to remain in the Moncloa Palace until the end of his term in 2027, with or without parliamentary support to legislate. He has dismissed the investigations as irrelevant to his government's social and economic agenda. Arcadi España, the Minister of Finance, reinforced this message, stating that the government's obligation is to continue negotiating with its partners and that legislative measures are still being passed.

“The president has already stated on multiple occasions that the legislature will be completed.”

Internal socialist pressure and the corruption backdrop

The political crisis is fueled by a series of judicial cases involving the PSOE's leadership, including former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and figures close to Sánchez. The investigations have prompted public calls for early elections from within the Socialist ranks themselves, including former Prime Minister Felipe González and the president of Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page. Local mayors facing re-election next year reportedly fear a "punishment vote" similar to what they believe they suffered in 2023 due to national politics.

Nogueras drew a pointed comparison with her own party leader, Carles Puigdemont, who faced a confidence vote in the Catalan Parliament in 2016 when he lost his majority. She questioned why Sánchez remains in power without a majority and without explaining his purpose, while Puigdemont did not hesitate to put his mandate on the line.

“Puigdemont didn't wait for the opposition parties to make any move, without complexes or fear.”

A strategic stalemate

Commentators note that a failed no-confidence motion could backfire on the PP by giving Sánchez a political lifeline and diverting public attention from the judicial pressure that is currently cornering his government. With the PP, Vox, and UPN still four to five seats short of an absolute majority, and with Junts and the PNV refusing to move beyond abstention, the parliamentary math remains frozen. The government survives day-to-day, but its legislative agenda is paralyzed as its former partners publicly abandon it.