Keir Starmer expected to resign as UK prime minister on Monday after losing Labour support to Andy Burnham

Mounting pressure from within the cabinet

Keir Starmer has concluded that he cannot continue to fight to remain in office, according to several British media reports citing anonymous Labour sources. The prime minister's position weakened steadily after poor local election results in England and devolved parliament elections in Wales and Scotland, and the crisis deepened on 11 June when defence minister John Healey unexpectedly resigned. Over the weekend, foreign secretary and several other cabinet members privately urged Starmer to step down.

Starmer has collided painfully with reality: he simply doesn't have support.

The Makerfield by-election as a turning point

The immediate trigger for Starmer's decision was Andy Burnham's overwhelming victory in the Makerfield by-election on Friday. Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, won 24,927 votes (54.8 percent), comfortably defeating Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, who received 15,696 votes (34.49 percent). The result gave Burnham, already the most popular figure in the party, a parliamentary seat and a direct path to contest the Labour leadership.

Under Labour rules, 81 MPs are needed to trigger a leadership contest. Sources cited by The Observer say Burnham can already count on more than 200 declarations of support.

A weekend of reflection at Chequers

Starmer spent the weekend at the prime minister's country residence, Chequers, with his wife and children. The Observer reported that the decision to resign was made after conversations with his wife. Trade minister Peter Kyle said on Sunday that Starmer was reflecting on "political realities" and added, when asked about the prime minister's plans, that he would be thinking about what it means to put the country first at such a moment.

What it means to put the country first at such a moment.

Resignation expected on Monday

Multiple media outlets, citing Labour insiders, say Starmer is preparing to announce his departure on Monday. He is reported to be working on a timetable for an orderly transfer of power to whomever the Labour Party chooses as its new leader. Downing Street has dismissed the reports as speculation, and an anonymous government source told Reuters that Starmer remains focused on his work and nothing has changed since he last said he would fight to stay on.

A party in open revolt

More than 100 Labour MPs, roughly a quarter of the parliamentary party, have publicly called for Starmer's resignation or demanded a timeline for his departure. Cabinet ministers Ed Miliband (climate change), Shabana Mahmood (home secretary) and Heidi Alexander (transport) have also pressed the prime minister to set out a departure timetable. If Starmer resigns, the UK will have its seventh prime minister in just a decade, the highest turnover in the office in nearly two centuries.