US and Iran send envoys to Doha despite conflicting accounts of talks, as Iraq presses for larger OPEC quota amid war fallout

Conflicting signals on Doha talks

US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials gave sharply different accounts on Monday of planned negotiations in Doha, with Trump posting on Truth Social that "Iran has requested a meeting" to take place on Tuesday, while Iran's foreign ministry denied any direct contact with the US at any level. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would fly to Qatar this week for high-level meetings. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said a technical delegation would travel to Doha, but no meetings with the US side were scheduled. A source told Reuters that technical teams from both sides are expected to meet in the coming days to manage the Strait of Hormuz and ease tensions, although previous technical talks in Switzerland had a broader agenda.

We have not yet entered the stage of negotiating a final agreement. Over the coming days, we will not have any negotiation meetings with the US side at any level.

Weekend strikes test ceasefire

The back-and-forth over talks follows a weekend of reciprocal military strikes that threatened to unravel the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 to end four months of war. Iran said a US-backed evacuation route for stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz was unacceptable, and attacked a container ship and a tanker using it on Thursday. The US then struck 10 Iranian military targets on Sunday, and Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. By Monday, both sides appeared to have paused hostilities.

Strait of Hormuz remains flashpoint

At the centre of the dispute is control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically transits. Iran insists it will manage the waterway and warned that attempts to bypass its preferred route would increase tensions. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said other countries should not interfere in the arrangements adopted by Iran for reopening the strait. A joint committee with Oman held its first meeting in Muscat on Monday to discuss the issue. Germany's Foreign Ministry said the situation remained "fragile" and urged a sustainable solution for safe, free passage.

Other countries should not interfere in the issue of managing the Strait of Hormuz and the arrangements adopted by the Islamic Republic of Iran for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic ripple effects

The closure of the strait sent oil prices above $100 a barrel, fuelling global inflation and causing political headaches for Washington ahead of midterm elections. Brent crude futures rose almost 1 percent on Monday after the weekend tensions highlighted the fragility of the accord. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said $6 billion out of $12 billion of assets frozen in Qatar would be released under the deal, calling the memorandum a "great victory for the Iranian people."

Iraq's OPEC ambitions

War losses and the disruption of oil exports have led Iraq to demand a higher OPEC production quota, putting it on a collision course with the producer group. Oil accounts for 88 percent of Iraqi government revenues, according to World Bank data. A string of multi-billion-dollar deals with oil majors since early 2025, including BP's $25 billion commitment to Kirkuk and TotalEnergies' $10 billion Basra project, has reinforced Iraq's conviction that it should reap more from its resources. Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi said leaving OPEC had not been discussed, though some sources suggest it has been weighed.

Iraq's demand for a larger OPEC quota is primarily a response to mounting economic pressures. Export disruptions and war-related losses have increased the need for higher production.