Cigarettes move from 20.3 cents per stick to 22.2 cents in January 2027, 24.2 cents in 2028, 26.4 cents in 2029 and 28.8 cents in January 2030.
Tagesschau projects a 20-pack at 8.77 euros in 2027 and 11.36 euros in 2030, while 20 Minuten and watson give 9.10 and 11.78 euros for the same years.
Klingbeil expects almost 12 billion euros over 2027 to 2030, while Bayerischer Rundfunk cites 756 million euros for 2027 against the finance ministry's 1.5 billion euros.
Jan Mücke of the BVTE says the expected revenue of up to 11.8 billion euros will not be realised because buyers may turn to the black market or neighbouring countries.
The Bundesrat takes up the law on Friday, 16 October, and no objection was expected beforehand, making the increase likely to be confirmed.
The Bundestag passed the law late on Thursday, 15 October, with the votes of the coalition factions of the Union (CDU/CSU) and the SPD. The parliamentary finance committee had approved the bill a day earlier, on Wednesday, 14 October. The increase is set in four steps, each taking effect on 1 January of the years 2027 to 2030. Cigarettes are currently taxed at 20.3 cents per stick, a rate that rises to 22.2 cents in 2027, 24.2 cents in 2028, 26.4 cents in 2029 and 28.8 cents in 2030. Klingbeil expects the rises to bring in almost 12 billion euros in extra revenue over 2027 to 2030.
A 20-pack averages 8.05 euros at present, according to tagesschau. Its calculations put the average at 8.77 euros in 2027, 9.56 euros in 2028, 10.42 euros in 2029 and 11.36 euros in 2030. Other outlets report higher figures for the same law: 20 Minuten and watson give 9.10, 9.91, 10.81 and 11.78 euros for those years, so both sets of numbers are shown as published. Brand-name cigarettes, which currently sell for just under 10 euros, could cost up to 14 euros by 2030, according to Berliner Zeitung. Fine-cut tobacco also rises, with a 30-gram pack that now costs 6 to 8 euros expected to be about 8 euros in 2027 and about 12 euros by 2030. E-liquids will be taxed at 38 cents per millilitre from 2027, rising to 44 cents by 2030.
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Hendrik Streeck, the federal government's drug commissioner (CDU), welcomed the increase and said he could imagine further price rises. In an interview with RP Online he said smoking kills about 131,000 people in Germany each year and costs society almost 100 billion euros. He added that WHO calculations would put a pack at about 23 euros to cover those follow-on costs. The German Cancer Research Center, cited by Deutsche Welle, puts the annual toll at about 130,000 deaths and the yearly cost at about 100 billion euros. Streeck said the extra revenue was a side effect and that he had fought for the measure for a long time.
“I have fought for this for a long time and have not only made friends doing so.”
The tobacco industry disputes the revenue forecasts. Jan Mücke, managing director of the Federal Association of the Tobacco Industry and New Products (BVTE), said in a statement before the vote:
“disproportionately strong tax jumps lead to an increase in illegal cigarette trade and more purchases in low-price neighbouring countries.”
The association said the expected revenue of up to 11.8 billion euros could therefore not be realised. The coalition factions also saw risks of evasion, a larger black market and untaxed sales from abroad, and called for tougher customs action and EU-level harmonisation of tobacco taxation.
The government justifies the increase with tight public finances and health protection. The state collected 17.6 billion euros in tobacco tax in 2025. The federal finance ministry expects about 1.5 billion euros in extra revenue in 2027 and 4.5 billion euros by 2030, according to watson and Berliner Zeitung. Bayerischer Rundfunk gives lower estimates of 756 million euros for 2027 and 3.58 billion euros for 2030. Green finance politicians, also cited by Bayerischer Rundfunk, consider these figures too high and doubt the money will reach health insurers, since tax revenue flows into the general budget.
Bayerischer Rundfunk reports that alcohol tax also rises by 20%, but only for spirits, sparkling wine and champagne, liqueur wines and alcopops, while beer and wine are excluded. A 0.75-litre bottle of sparkling wine would cost about 24 cents more, and the government expects 380 million euros in extra alcohol revenue in 2027. That plan has not yet been passed by the Bundestag. Deutsche Welle reports that the CDU and SPD also plan to raise the tax on sugary drinks. Opposition parties criticise the added burden on consumers, and concerns have been raised that the measures could fuel the black market.
The Bundesrat takes up the law on Friday, 16 October. RP Online reports that the chamber could object, but no objection was expected beforehand, so the increase is likely to be confirmed. The first step follows on 1 January 2027, when cigarettes move to 22.2 cents per stick and tagesschau projects a 20-pack at 8.77 euros. Further steps take effect each 1 January through 2030.
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Germany's Bundestag passed a law raising the tobacco tax in four steps from 1 January 2027. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil expects almost 12 billion euros in extra revenue, and the Bundesrat takes up the bill on Friday, 16 October.
AI text based on reports by Süddeutsche Zeitung, tagesschau.de, Deutsche Welle and other publishers. Changed .