Trump's claims about talks

On Thursday, 15 October, US President Donald Trump told the broadcaster Newsmax that Washington is holding talks with Russia and China on nuclear disarmament. He said he would like to pursue denuclearization if it proves possible, and that he discusses the subject often with both nuclear powers. He had said earlier that talks among the three states were taking place, but he gave no details of negotiating rounds or outcomes. Trump also said he expects China to draw level with the United States in nuclear weapons within the next five years, which would make Beijing less willing to disarm. Newsmax reported that Trump had raised the issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping as well.

The treaty that lapsed

The New START treaty, signed in 2010, limited deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 per side and deployable launchers to 700. It expired in February without a successor, and the five-year extension that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agreed in 2021 was the last available step. With the treaty gone, Russia and the United States are no longer bound by its limits. Keeping those limits voluntarily, or agreeing a new deal, would require political decisions from both countries. Trump has since called for a new agreement without specifying which states should take part. Sipri warned in June that, without a successor, the two countries could in theory load many hundreds of warheads onto existing delivery systems, and its researchers described a new nuclear arms race.

Moscow and Beijing hold back

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters on 28 September that arms control talks with Washington were long overdue and would need thorough preparation at expert level. Trump had pressed for three-way negotiations during his 24 September meeting with Xi at the White House, according to a US government statement. Peskov said China had repeatedly refused to take part and that Moscow knew of no change in Beijing's stance. In comments to Interfax, he later said a three-way round could hardly lead to cuts, because China considers its arsenal not comparable with the Russian and American ones. A possible Trump, Putin and Xi meeting on the sidelines of the Apec summit in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November 2026 has not been agreed. Insiders at the US State Department said in February that Washington wants a new multilateral deal that includes China, which has rejected the idea. Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing government circles, that Trump has pushed ahead with a civil nuclear programme negotiated with Saudi Arabia.

Stockpiles and China's build-up

Sipri's estimates put Russia's stockpile at 5,420 nuclear warheads, the United States at 5,042 and China at around 620. Spiegel summed up the split as Russia holding most stored warheads, while the United States has more ready for use. China, according to Sipri, is expanding its arsenal faster than any other country and presented several new nuclear systems at its 2025 military parade. Trump expects China to close the gap with the United States within five years.

Russia5,420

United States5,042

China620

Russia

5420 warheads

United States

5042 warheads

China

620 warheads

Data from the article text