Trump ties Saudi nuclear deal to Israel recognition, throwing agreement into doubt

The deal

On Wednesday, July 22, the United States and Saudi Arabia signed a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement that would allow American companies to build and operate nuclear infrastructure in the kingdom. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the pact would meet Saudi Arabia's energy needs, freeing oil reserves for export. The agreement, valued at over $10 billion, was designed to shut out competitors such as Russia and China while giving US firms a central role in a 30-year, multibillion-dollar program. The terms, which have not been released publicly, follow a framework first developed under the Biden administration, when nuclear cooperation was linked to Saudi diplomatic recognition of Israel.

Trump's surprise condition

Less than 24 hours after the deal was announced, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the agreement "will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords." The statement blindsided Saudi officials, who had not been told that normalization with Israel was a precondition. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted the kingdom had been aware of the linkage, saying, "The president is always the final dealmaker... Abraham Accords something he feels very strongly about." She added that Washington would continue conversations with Saudi counterparts to finalize a deal that includes recognition of Israel.

The deal will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords.

Saudi Arabia's bind

Saudi Arabia has long maintained that it would normalize relations with Israel only if there were concrete steps toward a Palestinian state, a condition Israel's current government rejects. The kingdom's silence after Trump's post was notable. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, said the demand was "so politically toxic, it could jeopardize the survival of the Saudi regime." Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, though not elected, needs popular support, and agreeing to Trump's condition "would poison the legitimacy of his government," Kelanic added. Analysts questioned whether Trump's ultimatum was a negotiating tactic or a firm condition. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, "We don't know if this is just a transitory reaction or a serious condition."

It's so politically toxic, it could jeopardize the survival of the Saudi regime.

Regional and proliferation fears

The deal has alarmed Israel and the United Arab Emirates, both US allies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Saudi recognition a "historic leap" for peace, but critics warn the agreement could trigger a nuclear arms race. Unlike the UAE's 2009 nuclear deal, which included an IAEA additional protocol and a renunciation of uranium enrichment, the Saudi pact is a bilateral agreement without IAEA oversight. It potentially allows Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium domestically after a two-year joint study. H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute said, "Would Saudi decide to do a complete 180 on what it has declared for the past three years, or 30 years? Quite dubious." The UAE, which sees nuclear energy as a matter of prestige, may view the less stringent terms as preferential treatment for Riyadh.

Would Saudi decide to do a complete 180 on what it has declared for the past three years, or 30 years? Quite dubious.

Congressional and political reaction

The agreement must still be approved by the US Congress, where it has already drawn criticism. Lawmakers were startled by the lax conditions when the deal was unveiled. Elisa Ewers, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted, "Leave it to this administration to negotiate after the signatures are barely dry." Trump may have been responding to critics, including The Wall Street Journal editorial board, who argued he had relinquished leverage. Leavitt framed the deal as an "America First" win, saying it would benefit American industry workers and supply chains.

Leave it to this administration to negotiate after the signatures are barely dry.

What comes next

The future of the agreement is uncertain. Saudi Arabia has not publicly responded, and analysts suggest it may try to let the condition quietly fade. The two-year study on uranium enrichment would give a future US administration the final say on whether enrichment proceeds. For now, the deal that was meant to cement US-Saudi ties and counter Iran's nuclear ambitions has instead exposed deep rifts over Israel and Palestinian statehood.