Trump warns 'hell will break loose' on Iran if it seeks nuclear weapons, as G7 watches ceasefire deal unfold

The deal on the table

A US-Iran memorandum of understanding, signed electronically on Sunday and set for formal signing this Friday in Switzerland, has paused the conflict that began on 28 February and shut the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli outlet N12 reports that the one-and-a-half-page document contains 12 main points, including a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, a ceasefire extending to Lebanon, and a commitment by the ayatollah regime not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons. The White House says full details will be published within 24 hours, ahead of the Friday meeting.

We have a deal that is fair. It's a good deal.

The Strait of Hormuz, semantics and service fees

The strait's reopening is central to the agreement. Trump claimed on Friday that it would be "completely" "open and without tolls." But Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said no tolls would be charged, only "service fees" for the route designated by Tehran. Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, direct tolls for innocent passage face heavy legal restrictions, but fees for services, environmental protection, navigation safety, maritime administration, emergency response, are permitted. Ali Ahmadi of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy notes that such charges could fund Iran's deterrence capabilities. The Israeli N12 report adds that the US has agreed to lift the naval blockade, not impose new sanctions, and not increase forces in the region during negotiations, while Iran guarantees safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait for 60 days, free of charge.

But they can charge fees for services.

Trump's nuclear red line

At the G7 summit in Évian, Trump told reporters alongside Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani that the one thing he really cares about is that Iran never has a nuclear weapon. He said the deal reflects this "clearly and forcefully" and revealed that a sticking point in talks was whether the ban covered only development or also purchase of nuclear arms. That dispute, he said, "took a couple more days of negotiations." The final text, according to Trump, bars Iran from developing, buying, acquiring, or doing anything else to obtain a nuclear weapon. "If they do, hell will break loose on them," he warned.

They will not develop it, they will not buy it and they will not do anything related to it. And if they do the consequences would be incredible.

Money and reconstruction, conflicting narratives

The N12 report says Trump committed to a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran. But Trump himself, speaking at Évian, flatly denied any US investment or payments to Tehran. "We are not investing money. We have no obligation to invest money in Iran," he said, calling reports of a fund "a rumour" and "ridiculous." He contrasted his approach with Barack Obama's 2015 nuclear deal, which he said involved "billions of dollars", "a crazy thing." Trump added that the US has the right to "go in someday and do something" if it chooses, but that no money is being put in. The European Commission, meanwhile, cancelled press events on Monday as it scrambled for a unified G7 message on the memorandum.

We don't pay for it like Obama did. He paid billions of dollars. It was crazy.

Lebanon and the regional picture

Trump said Israel has been fighting Hezbollah "too long" and that "too many people are dying." He called his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu "excellent" but said the Israeli prime minister "has to be more responsible regarding Lebanon," adding that he "didn't like that he launched an attack, that was too much." UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, also at the G7, said Britain would play "its full role" in reopening the Strait of Hormuz "as soon as possible." The deal includes negotiations between Iran and Oman, with Gulf policy participation, to define maritime transport and service agreements.

The G7 watches from the sidelines

The G7, meeting in Évian, has been sidelined from the US-Iran process much as it was from the war's start. Emmanuel Macron tried to focus the agenda on Ukraine, but the rest of the leaders concentrated on Trump's deal. The European Commission cancelled its Monday press events, awaiting a unified message that by Tuesday had still not materialised, beyond welcoming the cessation of hostilities. Analysts note that whatever Iran collects in service fees from Hormuz traffic may end up financing its military deterrence, a strategic cost of Trump's "victory."