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Today’s Brief

Ceuta drowns, yen gets help

Europe quarrels over Ceuta as Trump pauses Iran strikes and drought hits reactors

Borders, rivers and currencies did most of the moving overnight. Europe argued over Ceuta, Washington and Tehran traded incompatible claims, and drought pushed old energy assumptions into the open.

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Other · Updated 20m ago

Demography and migration

The new findings provide updated figures on irregular entries and returns in Ceuta, and clarify that new arrivals will not gain automatic rights to travel freely in the rest of the EU, confirming existing policy rather than introducing new measures.

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Macro·Jun 12

UK economy contracts 0.1% in April as Iran war energy shock hits growth

The UK economy contracted 0.1% in April after a 0.3% expansion in March, as rising energy prices from the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure squeezed household finances and services output.

Key figures

The UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April, according to data released today by the Office for National Statistics. The contraction follows a 0.3% expansion in March, which economists attributed to households and businesses rushing to spend before the Iran war disrupted supply chains and energy markets. Over the three months to April, GDP grew by 0.7%, but the monthly swing underscored the war’s sudden impact. The services sector, accounting for roughly four-fifths of UK output, was the main drag, although construction output rose to partially offset the decline.

UK GDP monthly swings
  1. Mar 31, 2026GDP grows 0.3% as consumers bring forward spending amid war concerns
  2. Apr 30, 2026GDP contracts 0.1% due to energy price shock from Iran war; three-month growth 0.7%

War-driven energy shock

The downturn is directly linked to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy chokepoint. Higher oil and gas prices have fed through to household bills and business costs, squeezing disposable income and dampening service-sector activity. The Guardian noted that the strong first-quarter growth had been widely expected to slide into reverse. The Telegraph described April’s figure as a “sharp reversal” of the previous month’s momentum, with the war’s energy shock hitting the domestic economy hard.

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Political response

Chancellor Rachel Reeves pushed back against suggestions that domestic policy was at fault. She argued that the UK entered the crisis with robust fundamentals and redirected blame toward the conflict’s instigators. According to The Guardian, Reeves criticised Donald Trump’s role, calling it “folly” to have unleashed the war that has now ricocheted onto British households. Her comments reflect a growing political narrative that Britain is a victim of geopolitical missteps, rather than the author of its own economic troubles.

Risks ahead

The data reinforces fears that the UK could tip into a second-quarter contraction if elevated energy prices persist. The government has yet to announce new support measures, despite calls from opposition parties and business groups. May and June figures will be scrutinised for signs of a longer slowdown, but for now, the trajectory is shaped by events beyond Westminster’s control.

London
Rachel ReevesDonald Trump
Donald TrumpLondonKeir StarmerRachel Reeves

3 sources

  • UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April
    BBC·Jun 12
  • Economy shrinks after Iran war energy shock - latest updates
    The Telegraph·Jun 12
  • UK economy shrank by 0.1% in April as Iran war held back growth
    The Guardian·Jun 12

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