UN warns of likely El Niño event by August, raising fears of extreme weather worldwide

The United Nations' weather agency has issued a stark warning that the El Niño climate phenomenon is likely to develop in the coming months, with a high probability of lasting through the end of the year. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates an 80% chance of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August 2026, and a near or above 90% chance of it continuing until at least November. Most forecast models point to an episode that is at least moderate, and possibly strong.

The scientific data is unequivocal: there is a 90% chance that El Niño will be at our doorstep in the coming months.

Global climate impacts

El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months. The phenomenon disrupts atmospheric circulation, altering rainfall, pressure, and wind patterns across much of the planet. Regions like Australia, Indonesia, and the Sahel in Africa often face reduced rainfall and drought, while the southern United States and northern Central America can see heavy precipitation and flooding. Southern Asia and the Horn of Africa may also experience below-average monsoon rains, threatening water supplies and crop yields.

Countries need to prepare for an El Niño that could exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.

Amplified by a warming planet

The warning arrives as global oceans register exceptionally high temperatures and recent years rank as the warmest on record. Scientists fear El Niño will act as an additional amplifier of global warming. The UN Secretary-General stated that El Niño conditions will "throw fuel on the fire of a warming planet." Between late April and mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the reference zone of the Pacific were already at the threshold of an El Niño event, fed by subsurface temperatures more than 6°C above average.

Regional outlooks

In Brazil, researchers expect the first signs to appear in the southern region during the spring, with increased rainfall, while the north and northeast may face drought. Tércio Ambrizzi, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of São Paulo, noted a consensus that the event will likely be moderate to strong, cautioning that the term "super El Niño" is not entirely accurate. In Europe, the Spanish meteorological agency AEMET considers it "unlikely" that El Niño will have a significant direct influence on Spain this summer, as the phenomenon will be in its early stages. However, AEMET still forecasts a warmer-than-normal June-to-August period for the northern and eastern thirds of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands, with a possible increase in stormy episodes. Some studies suggest a correlation between El Niño and wetter late autumns and early winters in Spain.

The term 'super El Niño' is not exactly adequate. The trend is for it to be moderate to strong.

Europe's broader vulnerability

Europe is heating at roughly twice the global average, leaving its cities, farms, rivers, and health systems increasingly exposed. While El Niño's impact is strongest in the tropics and interacts with other climate drivers over Europe, even a moderate event can raise the odds of damaging extremes. Climatologist Carlos Câmara told Observador that the direct impact on the Iberian Peninsula will not be significant, but expressed concern about the Atlantic and Mediterranean waters being "crazily above normal," representing large sources of accumulated energy that can fuel severe weather.