US and Iran finalize text of preliminary nuclear deal, odds of signing rise to 80–85 percent
A senior Trump administration official said the text of a 60-day preliminary agreement with Iran has been agreed, and that the probability of its signing has increased from 75 to 80–85 percent within hours.
Agreement reached
A senior US administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity in a telephone briefing on Friday, 12 June, told reporters that the text of a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) has been agreed with Iran. The official noted that while both sides are "not yet at the finish line, they are very close." The odds of the deal being signed were estimated at 75 percent in the morning, and rose to 80–85 percent later in the day.
The accord would open the Strait of Hormuz after a period of blockade and set the stage for dismantling Iran's nuclear programme. The timing and venue of a signing ceremony remain undecided; Europe is being considered as a "neutral intermediate site" between the United States and Iran.
The four pillars
According to the US official, the MOU rests on four pillars: reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its blockade; the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear programme, with enriched material handed over to the United States to be "destroyed on site and then removed from the country"; long-term regional peace; and an inspection regime to verify compliance.
Iran would commit permanently to never acquiring nuclear weapons. The official described this indefinite commitment as "a significant concession that the President cared about very much." After the MOU is signed, a 60-day period of technical negotiations would refine the logistics of dismantlement and the removal of fissile material.
Benefits and distrust
In return, Iran would receive gradual sanctions relief and reintegration into the global economy, but only after fulfilling its obligations. The White House representative flatly denied that any lump sum — figures of $12 billion, $6 billion, or $1 billion had been circulating — would be paid at signing.
The Iranians get nothing at the moment of signing the MOU, nor during the negotiations themselves. They receive economic benefits for fulfilling their obligations.
The same official added a candid note of mistrust.
I don't trust that they will keep the agreement. I trust that we have constructed it in such a way that they won't get their benefits until we get ours.
Iran's leadership on board
The US official told the briefing that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is "pleased with where we are in the negotiations." That assessment was confirmed, he said, by interlocutors from both civilian and military leadership in Iran. He acknowledged pockets of opposition within the Iranian system but stated there is a "broad consensus in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, among hardliners, and among civilian leadership that this is a good and acceptable agreement."
Regional echoes
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif underscored the regional stakes earlier in the day, saying that "peace has never been as close as it is now." The statement highlights the broader diplomatic optimism surrounding the potential accord.
